Published:
November 19, 2007
The building and construction boom
is in full swing, and investors
should sit up and take notice. Not
only has this industry strengthened
over the past year, but signs
indicate that it's about to get even
better.
For many investors, that might sound
like a ridiculous statement or a
hopelessly anachronistic headline
from the height of the housing boom.
After all, the most widely watched
metric for the housing market is
housing starts -- a measure of how
many new homes begin construction.
And as you may know, domestic
housing starts plummeted to a
14-year low in September. Even
worse, the number of new residential
building permits filed that month
plunged more than -30%
year-over-year to a new 12-year low,
a sign that the U.S. residential
housing market isn't likely to get
appreciably better anytime soon.
But I'm not talking about housing,
nor am I solely referring to the
U.S. market.
What about the firms that build
power plants, roads, bridges, water
treatment facilities and even
commercial office buildings?
Millions of investors ignore this
other side of the construction
business -- whose players are
loosely grouped under the term
"non-residential
construction." However, my
staff and I think this is about to
change.
Demand for such projects has little
to do with housing. For example,
roads are typically financed by
state, local or even Federal
governments -- spending often
remains steady, even during
recessions. And while U.S. home
prices have started to fall, the
value of office space has not -- in
many of the nation's largest cities,
office rents continue to rise.
Our
chart tells the story -- while
spending on U.S. residential
construction topped out in late
2005, spending on non-residential
construction continues to soar.
And the trends so evident here in
the U.S. are magnified many times
over in fast-growing emerging
markets. In China, for example,
millions of new drivers take to the
roads each year -- new car sales are
on track to hit 6 million vehicles
in 2007. All these drivers need a
modern highway system, and that
means big spending on roads.
And consider the burgeoning
economies in cities like Mumbai,
Shanghai and Beijing -- all that
business development adds to strong
demand for new office space.
With these points in mind, here are
some of the major non-residential
construction markets that are likely
to see growth in the coming years,
both in the U.S. and abroad . . .
Power
Construction
According to the U.S. Department of
Energy, Chinese demand for
electricity is set to jump more than
three-fold between 2004 and 2030.
And as the chart below shows, India
isn't far behind.
The end result of all that demand: a
new power plant opens in China
nearly once per week. The nation is
building all sorts of plants, from
traditional coal-fired facilities to
the massive Three Gorges
hydroelectric project to a fleet of
modern nuclear plants. But even
then, parts of China are still
plagued by rolling blackouts --
rapidly rising demand simply
overwhelms supply, despite the heady
pace of new plant construction.
And China and India aren't the only
nations that are short of power.
While U.S. power consumption growth
can't match that of China, it's
still steadily rising. In fact, over
the past summer electricity demand
soared to record levels in parts of
the country. Electricity generation
capacity simply wasn't sufficient to
meet that demand, causing blackouts
in some cases. And the situation
isn't going to get any better
immediately -- the U.S. simply
hasn't built enough power plants to
keep pace with growing demand.
But that's changing. Utilities have
filed permits for the first new
nuclear power plants since the
1970's. And coal plants are still
breaking ground, despite
environmental objections from some
quarters.
Bridges and Roads
This summer, the devastating
collapse of the Interstate-35 West
Bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota
made headlines all over the world.
This wasn't some minor backcountry
crossing -- it's estimated that more
than 140,000 motorists traversed the
span each and every day. Tragically,
thirteen died in the collapse, while
more than 100 were injured, many
seriously.
While the cause of the collapse
hasn't been officially revealed, the
bridge was cited as
"structurally deficient"
by the federal government due to
corrosion. Like most bridges in the
U.S., the I-35 bridge was decades
old, built and opened for traffic in
1967. Unfortunately, a horrifying
75,000 bridges nationwide have also
been certified as structurally
deficient -- many are as old or
older than the Minneapolis I-35
bridge.
The devastating collapse has
prompted many state, local and
federal officials to re-examine
bridges with potential structural
deficiencies. Already, as a direct
result of the Minnesota disaster,
some bridges are being closed or
weight restricted for repairs.
And road construction isn't just
about safety -- we've all complained
about traffic at one point or
another. The Texas Transportation
Institute (TTI) published a survey
in 2003 measuring the amount of time
commuters spend stuck in traffic
each year across 75 of America's
largest cities. The results are
astounding -- the TTI estimates that
drivers waste more than 5.7 billion
gallons of gasoline per year sitting
in traffic jams -- and that's just
in just the 75 urban areas studied.
With gasoline at $3 per gallon,
that's a more than a $17 billion
annual drain on the economy.
And that's only part of the cost.
The study also showed that commuters
wasted some 3.5 billion hours
annually on the road. And that's not
to mention the environmental effects
-- the longer it takes to make a
journey, the more pollution a car
emits. The all-in cost to the U.S.
economy: more than $70 billion
annually, or about $520 per person.
Many of the nation's major roadway
systems date back to the 1950's and
1960's, when there were far fewer
cars on the road. For years, this
growing problem was largely
neglected. However, that's starting
to change, as U.S. roadway
construction spending has risen
sharply over the past two years.
Water Infrastructure
While $100 per barrel crude oil and
$3 per gallon gasoline get a lot of
press, water shortages rarely make
the national news. Of course, few
think of that, because water is
assumed to be safe and almost free
-- most of us take clean water for
granted.
But perhaps that's naive. Over the
past five years, several major
cities have been forced to issue
"boil water" alerts to
protect consumers against
contaminated water systems.
And safety isn't the only issue --
consider that many water systems in
major cities across the developed
world date from before World War II.
For example, according to the World
Wildlife Fund, ageing leaky pipes
and reservoir systems waste 300
Olympic-sized swimming pools worth
of water per day in London; last
summer that city was forced to issue
water restrictions due to a
shortage. And in the United States,
a severe drought in the Southeast
has left Atlanta's key reservoirs
with less than a 90-day supply of
water.
And outside the U.S., the problem is
even more severe. Strong population
growth in the Middle East and Asia
is forcing governments to spend on
desalination plants and reservoirs.
In China, for example, the
government has forecast that by
2030, the nation may have a more
than 50 trillion gallon annual water
shortfall -- that's more water than
China currently consumes in a year.
The country plans a series of
projects to help alleviate the
problem, but many remain concerned
about water shortages ahead of the
Beijing Olympics next summer.
Office Buildings
While sales of U.S. residential
properties have weakened notably
over the past two years, the same
cannot be said of office buildings.
According to statistics published by
CB Richard Ellis, the U.S. office
vacancy rate -- a measure of what
percentage of U.S. offices are
without a tenant -- stood at 12.6%
at the end of the third quarter.
That's actually down considerably
from the 13.2% vacancy rate from
just one year ago.
In many downtown markets,
availability is even tighter -- the
vacancy rate in these markets stands
at just over 10%, the lowest reading
since early 2001. Thus, demand is
tight enough to continue prompting
developers to build new office
space.
And once again, some foreign
countries make the U.S. market look
weak in comparison. In Singapore,
for example, strong growth in the
financial services industry has
triggered a boom in demand for
premium office real estate -- rents
have tripled since 2003. Rents
actually hit a new all-time record
in the third quarter of 12.6
Singaporean dollars per square foot.
With all of these points in mind,
companies that build the roads,
water systems, office parks and
power plants the world so
desperately needs stand to benefit
from a wave of spending in the
coming years. In the text that
follows, we profile two of our
favorite plays on the boom in
non-residential construction
spending . . .
Important
Note: Throughout the rest of
this article, StreetAuthority.com
co-founder Paul Tracy provides an
in-depth look at his two favorite
non-residential construction stocks.
However, in order to view the
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Paul Tracy co-founded StreetAuthority.com and became the firm's
Chief Investment Strategist in 2001. He also co-founded TopStockAnalysts.com in
2006. Prior to that he spent several years as Managing Editor at a multi-million
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for equity research and managing a team of seasoned professional financial
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full-service brokerage operations as well as economic research work on a Money
and Banking project funded by the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has
also spent time doing outside consulting and research for the University of
Virginia, has appeared as a guest expert on several prominent financial radio
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Paul graduated with a B.S. in Finance and Management from the McIntire School
of Commerce at the University of Virginia.
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