| Published:
May 15, 2009
Read
much about investments and you're
bound to run across the word
"skyrocket." I know I use it every
now and then. Maybe you have, too.
It's a good metaphor -- the perfect
visual for what we all hope will
happen to the stocks we buy.
This morning was the first time I've
ever used it literally.
DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI),
which operates satellites that
provide images to U.S. intelligence
agencies, went public today, the
fifth IPO of the year and only the
third high-tech offering. Though
most would concede it's a lousy time
to launch a new offering, the shares
did indeed skyrocket, gaining +13%
on their first day of trading. The
stock opened at $19, a buck above
its anticipated range of $16 to $18
a share. They closed at $21.50.
What's driving this? One thing and
one thing only.
Government action.
In early April, U.S. intelligence
directors decided to increase the
number of satellite images the
government buys. Now, I always
figured this was handled by the
military. But it's not. Two
private-sector vendors that operate
spy satellites. One is
DigitalGlobe, the other is
GeoEye (Nasdaq: GEOY).
Now, the thing is, there's already
more business than these two
companies can accommodate -- they're
hard-pressed to take all the
pictures Uncle Sam needs as it is.
Now with the government deciding to
buy even more images, DigitalGlobe
decided it was time to go public.
DGI --
the first private outfit the federal
government licensed to operate these
critical intel-gathering assets --
is going to experience the same
growth that its rival did. GeoEye's
shares are up more than +42% this
year. That bodes pretty well for
DigitalGlobe. Remember, these are
the only two companies the
government uses to provide these
crucial images, the market for which
will likely exceed $10 billion by
2012.
Both of these companies' businesses
are protected by insurmountably high
barriers to entry. In the first
place, it takes a half a billion
dollars to launch a spy satellite.
And even if an upstart could get the
financing for such a venture -- and
the odds are against that -- such an
enterprise would still fail because
it would lack a strong relationship
with the U.S. government.
Those high barriers not only protect
the business, they ensure a high
margin: DigitalGlobe had revenues of
$275 million last year -- an +81%
increase from the year before -- and
an operating profit of $92 million.
That puts it among the top 1.5% of
U.S. publicly traded U.S. companies.
DigitalGlobe is going to skyrocket
in every sense of the word. Its
going to launch its third satellite,
and its shares are going to take
off. At one point they'd piled on
+33% today. That's just a warm-up
for what they will do in the future.
Here's my prediction: DGI's initial
$275 million market cap will balloon
to more than $1 billion in less than
two years -- it will double and then
double again. I think these shares
will easily reach $50 -- possibly
within weeks, certainly within
months They're a beautiful long-term
term play.
Why? Because our government is going
to continue to put pressure on
Afghanistan, and there's no way to
win the war there without the
constantly updated satellite images.
In addition to Afghanistan, there
are certainly other areas that our
intelligence leaders need to keep up
with, from Israel to Iran to North
Korea. In fact, there's really no
place on earth where the United
States doesn't have an interest.
Intelligence agencies have to keep
an eye on the whole world.
To that end, senior officials have
already directed the procurement of
additional imaging. Digital Globe is
well positioned to take full
advantage of the huge
government-driven opportunity. And
now, with its shares available to
investors, you can position yourself
to profit, too.
Let me be clear: The federal machine
that's lifting DGI shares into orbit
is the most powerful financial force
on the planet. Since the bailout
began, Uncle Sam has spent, lent or
committed $13 trillion to get the
economy back on track. Every time
one of those public dollars is
spent, a private profit is realized.
To learn more about how government
spending can boost your portfolio's
returns,
click here.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Director
Government-Driven Investing
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