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Published: July 10, 2009
Living in Canada, I
see first-hand the impact of the falling U.S. dollar. From
2002-2007, the Canadian dollar soared uninterrupted over its
stateside counterpart.
Over that time, it usually cost me less and less to purchase
anything in U.S. dollars... whether it be investments or even
vacations. Even though I was spending the same amount of money,
my Canadian dollar simply went further in the United States.
If you're living in the U.S., don't fret. You can take advantage
of the same phenomenon by investing abroad. And if you're an
income investor, you'll find that your dividends can soar
because of it -- even if the underlying company doesn't raise
them a cent.
How Far the Mighty
Fell
From a peak in July 2001 to a low in April 2008, the
U.S. Dollar Index fell by a staggering -41%. As world
economic growth exploded, investors somewhat shunned the
U.S. markets, instead focusing on developing nations
with high growth prospects.
Meanwhile, U.S. deficits began to soar at an astounding
rate. Public debt ballooned over +50% from $6 trillion
in 2000 to over $9 trillion in 2007. As you likely know,
heavy debt loads can lead to instability in a company or
a country. And with foreign markets booming while the
United States racked up more and more debt, entities
around the world demanded fewer dollars -- helping lead
to its long-term decline. |

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However, with the
onset of the financial crisis, the trend reversed. As economic
crisis spread, investors parked cash in still safe-haven U.S.
Treasuries to ride out the storm. As a result, during the height
of the financial turmoil -- July 2008 and March 2009 -- the U.S.
Dollar Index soared +24%.
But now the
long-term downtrend seems to be reappearing as the fundamental
reasons for the dollar's prior decline have been dramatically
amplified in recent months. The U.S. government has been
borrowing and spending like never before. The Obama
administration estimates budget deficits will soar to $1.84
trillion in 2009 and $1.26 trillion in 2010.
And as panic from the financial crisis has waned, dollars are
flowing out of dollar-denominated assets like Treasuries and
into foreign investments once again -- even though some of those
foreign countries have debt loads and credit ratings that are
worse than the United States'. The U.S. Dollar Index has already
fallen -10% since March, and that's good news if you're
investing abroad for income.
Falling Dollar = Higher Income
By investing abroad, you'll see your dividends increase in
dollar terms as the U.S. dollar falls.
For example, between July 2001 and April 2008 the dollar lost
-46% of its value relative to the euro. Let's say over that time
a European stock paid 5 euros a year in dividends. In 2001, you
would have received just US$4.20 in exchange. But after the
dollar fell, that same 5 euro payment would be converted to
US$8.00 in 2008 -- an increase of over +90%, even though the
actual payment didn't increase by one cent.
Investing abroad isn't as exotic as it sounds, either. Many
foreign companies trade right on the NYSE. They simply make
dividend payments in their native currency and then translate
them over to dollars for U.S. investors. In addition, several
full-service and discount brokers offer direct access to foreign
exchanges denominated in foreign currencies.
Either way you go, as the dollar declines, your income and the
value of your dividends will increase in dollar terms. And given
how enormous deficits and continued foreign investment will take
their toll on the dollar, this boost could happen sooner rather
than later.
If you want to take advantage of the falling dollar, you might
like CPFL Energia (NYSE: CPL). I'm looking at the Brazilian
energy giant right now... it already yields a whopping 7.8%
based on payments totaling about US$3.70 in the past year. And
over the past four months, the dollar has fallen about -20%
against the Brazilian real. If that continues, you'll see even
higher payments from CPFL in dollar terms.
Good investing!
-- Carla Pasternak
Editor
High-Yield International
P.S. -- My July issue of High-Yield International is now
available . In it, I share some of my favorite ways to turn the
falling dollar in your favor, including a list of 10 star
performers from around the globe. You can get my issue by
just follow this link. |