|
Published: August 19, 2009
What the mind can conceive and believe, it can
insure (my apologies to Napoleon Hill).
You already know from personal experience about insurance on
your life, your house and your car. But maybe you didn't know
you could insure your wages, a business can insure its directors
and officers, and you can even insure your pet dog against
illness or injury.
More importantly, after much research, I can assure you that in
today's markets, select insurance securities can ensure you lock
in high, safe yields for years to come while also offering
capital gains potential. But there's a catch -- this chance
isn't going to be around forever.
How quickly is this opportunity closing? The KBW Insurance Index
(KIX) covers 75% of the market capitalization of U.S. insurance
stocks across the industry. It includes household names such as
AFLAC (NYSE: AFL), Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and Chubb (NYSE: CB).
The index peaked at just over 150 in May 2008. When it hit its
low of around 42 this past March, it had fallen more than -70%
-- far worse than the roughly -50% decline in the S&P 500.
Since then, however, the S&P has recovered about +50% of its
value off its lows, but insurance stocks have rebounded an
astounding +125%. Even so, with a little digging you can unearth
select insurance securities that are still dirt cheap, as
measured by forward P/E ratios as low as 5 and 6 times next
year's projected earnings (versus about 15 times for the broader
S&P 500).
Not All Insurers Are Ripe for the Picking
That's not to say you can throw all caution to the wind in
picking insurance stocks. It's far too risky to rush willy-nilly
into the sector, buying anything that has had a price recovery
since this March. Simply put, there are two main problems with
investing in just any insurance company... but I've found
solutions to both.
First is that insurers can and do run into trouble -- especially
in tumultuous markets.
AIG is the best-known story of how
the money-making potential of
insurers can fail miserably. When
the subprime mortgage crisis hit,
AIG had to make good on insurance
contracts issued on mortgage-backed
securities and credit default swaps.
Since its last profitable quarter
about two years ago, the company has
reported losses of about $100
billion, losing $62 billion in the
fourth quarter of 2008 alone.
In fact, some blue-chip bellwethers
held such fragile balance sheets
that in April the U.S. government
felt compelled to step in and make
$22 billion available to insurers
under the Capital Protection
Program, a subsection of TARP. The
care package was made to some of
best known names in the industry --
Prudential, Principal Financial
Group, Lincoln National, Hartford
Insurance Group, Allstate and
Ameriprise.
Even the best of the breed saw large
investment income declines last year
as interest rates and the stock
market plummeted. Still, the
strongest insurers remained
profitable while the storm raged and
are now poised for continued gains
as the economy starts to stabilize.
These names include companies like
Delphi Financial (NYSE: DFG),
MetLife (NYSE: MET), and Unum (NYSE: UNM). That's where I'm focusing my
attention.
How to Squeeze Out Higher Yields
Which brings up the second issue...
dividend yields. Insurance stocks as
a group carry an average dividend
yield of only around 2.4%. I only
bite on yields about three times
that level.
Luckily, I get a little more
creative when it comes to finding
yields. That's why I'm looking into
the debt securities and preferred
stocks of some of the stronger
insurers... instead of their common
stocks.
So far I've found yields as high as
10.6% from the senior
exchange-traded bonds (they are
bonds, but trade just like a stock
on the NYSE) of the strongest
insurers. I've also uncovered 8.4%
from their preferred stocks.
But if you plan to get in on these
high yields, I would do it with some
urgency. Many of the yields are
still higher than normal thanks to
the market's big sell-off. As things
get back to normal, I'm seeing them
shrink almost by the day. Your
window of opportunity is closing
quickly.
Good Investing,
-- Carla Pasternak
Editor
High-Yield Investing
P.S. -- I brought my best insurance
picks to
High-Yield Investing
readers in my most recent issue.
Based on my research, I presented
seven of my favorites... including
the 10.6% and 8.4% yielders I
highlighted above.
If you want to get into these picks
at a good price, I can't urge you
enough to hurry. That 10.6% yielder
has already appreciated +15.4% since
my August issue was published. To
receive my August newsletter, simply
subscribe to High-Yield Investing
today.
|