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Published: September 2, 2009
Several hundred thousand crude oil contracts
trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) on a typical
day.
Look closely at the details of the session's activity and you'll
see prices like $68.08, the closing price for October crude on
Sept. 1.
You'll probably notice that December 2010 crude settled at
$75.07 and that the more time passes, the higher the price goes.
For instance, traders have set the price for crude that will be
delivered in December 2015 at $85.11.
Those prices all strike me as very high.
Then I realized I was shopping in the wrong store. The place to
buy oil isn't at the New York Mercantile Exchange, it's a few
blocks away at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
That's where I found out I could buy a barrel of oil for as
little as $4.67.
It's not impossible, unethical or immoral. But it may well be
the deal of a lifetime. That price is roughly 7 cents on the
dollar for a barrel of crude that will cost nearly $70 just a
little way down the street.
Let me show you how I did it.
It would cost $26 billon to buy every single share of
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC). So let's assume I (could)
write that check.
What would I get in return?
Well, from the CEO's perspective, I'd own an industry leader in
oil and gas exploration.
From the CFO's point of view, I'd have a company with $19.6
billion worth of net assets that typically generates between $3
billion and $6 billion in cash from operations each year.
But from my perspective, the most important thing I would own is
Anadarko's 2.37 billion barrels of crude oil reserves.
That oil is worth about $165 billion at today's prices. And it
will be worth $237 billion on the day coming soon when I believe
oil prices will hit $100.
Bottom line: If I buy Anadarko for $26 billion, I get $165
billion worth of oil.
Don't have $26 billion laying
around? Hey, don't feel bad. I don't
either. But I can buy a single share
of Anadarko's stock for about $53.
That share, one of 450.9 million,
entitles its owner to a tiny share
of the company's assets. That might
not seem like much, but it works out
to 4.6 barrels of oil. That's
$312.80 worth of oil for $53 -- and
you get the rest of the company,
which also has significant natural
gas inventory, for free.
Believe it or not, I found four
other companies that offer oil even
cheaper than Anadarko.
As you can see from the table,
individual investors like you and me
can buy oil for a far better price
than the hotshot commodity traders.
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The winner in the cheap-oil derby, then, is BreitBurn
Energy Partners (Nasdaq: BBEP), a limited partnership based
in Los Angeles with 103.6 million barrels of reserves. You can
purchase one share of this company on the Nasdaq for less than
$10 a share. But in per-share crude reserves alone, that share
is worth about $140!
In aggregate, BreitBurn can be bought for $483 million. Its oil
is worth $7.4 billion. You can buy BreitBurn's crude for less
than the $7.92 it typically costs Big Oil to produce a barrel.
That's a steal. It won't last long, either. Most of these oil
companies are trading in the bottom half of their 52-week
ranges, even though oil has already rebounded +75% off its lows
. As the price of this commodity inches ever closer to $100 a
barrel, these oil producers' shares prices could be poised to
take off.
Interested in oil? It's a great investment as the economy
rebounds. You can buy oil at the New York Mercantile Exchange or
you can buy it at the NYSE. It's entirely up to you. The only
question is whether you want a good deal or whether you want the
deal of a lifetime.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Analyst
Government-Driven Investing
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