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Published: September 24, 2009
When it comes to investing, there are almost
never any guarantees or absolutes. But I can give you one
iron-clad, take-it-to-the-bank prediction -- wireless
communication is going to throw off buckets of profits during
the next few years.
I'm not exactly going out on a limb.
Across the globe, the world's seven billion inhabitants have
different customs, hobbies, religions, and lifestyles. But we
all like to stay in contact with friends and family. And as
wired phones fade, mobile phones have evolved from an expensive
novelty to an indispensable piece of hardware.
Polls show that more than 90% of consumers would happily give up
a dishwasher, microwaves, televisions and most other luxuries
before they would live without their cell phone. Rarely do
billions of people speak in one resounding voice about a single
product or service.
But when they do, it's always a good idea for investors to heed
the message.
It wasn't that long ago when mobile phones were carried by less
than one in 200 people. The world has changed quite a bit in 20
years. Today, there are more than 3.9 billion devices in
operation -- about one out of every two people worldwide.
This saturation means the hyper-growth rates of the past are
over in most developed markets -- so investors need to look
abroad.
The number of mobile phone subscribers in 34 key emerging
countries could double from 2.1 billion today to 4.3 billion by
2013 according to a study by Tariff Consultancy. These countries
could soon represent about two-thirds of the world's wireless
phone users.
China remains the key growth driver for the industry.
Penetration rates are still below the 50% mark, but that is
changing quickly. In fact, roughly four million mobile phones
are sold in China every day.
So it comes as no surprise that China Mobile is signing up seven
million net new customers each month and now has a subscriber
base of 500 million.
But the next big catalyst may be Africa, where many regions are
skipping landlines and going straight to wireless -- more than
twice as many Africans are connected via mobile than traditional
land phones. And considering cell phone towers are less
expensive than rolling out cable to remote areas, I expect
wireless infrastructure to remain a key spending initiative for
many African governments.
Africa is forecast to see robust
annual subscriber growth of +13.3%
during the next five years according
to Portio Research. At that rate,
roughly 80% of the world's
population will be wireless by 2013.
But it may not stop there, ongoing
technological advancements will keep
most users upgrading to take
advantage of the latest styles and
features. Mobile phones have
branched out from their humble
origins with cameras, MP3 players,
GPS and other functions. And the
widespread rollout of
third-generation (3G) networks has
accelerated the adoption of mobile
broadband internet service.
Thanks in part to generous subsidies
from retailers, these "smart" phones
are surging in popularity. In fact,
more than 170 million units were
sold last year -- and that total is
expected to jump to 192 million in
2009.
Smart phones account for nearly
one-fifth of all mobile phones, and
even pessimistic projections point
to +15% or better annualized growth
in the years ahead.
Clearly, this has been a boon for
manufacturers like Apple (Nasdaq:
AAPL), maker of the trendy iPhone.
But with millions of customers
signing up for expensive data plans
and other premium services, the
transition will also lead to
stronger average revenues per user
for wireless carriers.
This demand is translating into big
opportunities for telecom firms.
From equipment vendors to wireless
carriers, there is an entire telecom
ecosystem supported by our unbridled
love affair with these handy
devices.
At the moment, economic weakness has
depressed sales. But this slowdown
won't stick around forever, and
we're already seeing signs of global
stabilization.
Fortunately, short-sighted traders
have hung up on the sector, slashing
the price of many telecom stocks by
-30% or more. Think every time you
see somebody chatting on a mobile
phone, it means more cash for those
telecom companies.
But the best way for investors to
generate income from this burgeoning
sector isn't with individual stocks,
it's with exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
I've recently identified two of the
most promising.
Click here to get their names
and ticker symbols -- it's on the
house.
-- Nathan Slaughter
Editor
The ETF Authority |