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Published: October 19, 2009
BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) is the
largest and most diversified mining producer in the world. And
the company has had the foresight to acquire assets that provide
access to the highest-potential minerals and commodities on the
planet.
Other than lithium -- "the next oil," which will skyrocket with
pure electric car production starting next year -- BHP has
leading positions in key low-cost mineral deposits around the
world.
The company’s highly disciplined management has afforded it
consistent profitability and a very strong balance sheet. That
has allowed BHP to take advantage of the economic downturn by
cherry-picking mining properties around the world.
In June, for example, BHP reached a $116 billion deal with Rio
Tinto PLC (NYSE: RTP) that will allow the two mining giants
to merge their Western Australia iron-ore operations. Also, they
are in a friendly $200 million takeover of United Minerals (ASX:
UMC),
which has deposits adjacent to a large BHP mine.
Deals like these create strong long-term value for shareholders
and deliver results. And, in BHP’s case, they also help the
company to fulfill its long-term mandate of capitalizing on
booming demand in the emerging markets, which account for 15% of
the global economy and are growing much faster than the
rest of the world.
China, in particular, needs to grow its economy at +8% in order
to employ the 18 million people that join its labor force each
year. And with international reserves of $2.3 trillion and no
debt, Beijing can dial up its own growth number.
China’s vast international reserves and solid balance sheet
gives it what I love to see when analyzing countries: varying
degrees of freedom. That is, China has many economic and policy
options to control its own destiny, instead of being dependent,
as Warren Buffet likes to say, “on the kindness of strangers.”
And these policies have been so effective that China is already
starting to consider reining in some of the stimuli that the
central government deployed just after the crisis began.
But do not be alarmed. Beijing’s requirement that the economy
grow at a rate of at least +8% a year will continue to afford
investors with a tremendous potential for profit -- and
certainly more opportunities than in countries still struggling
to emerge from the financial crisis.
What’s more, China’s stimulus has already been effective in
driving domestic consumer demand. By October of last year, the
vast majority of China’s growth was coming from internal
investment and demand, rather than from exports. So the economy
is indeed making the desired transition.
That means there will continue to
be a lot of new buildings, roads,
cars, refrigerators and many other
things that require not only
electricity, but steel to produce.
Steel, of course, is produced using
iron ore, whose supply is highly
concentrated among three players.
BHP and Rio Tinto are two of those
three, and the final player is Vale
SA (NYSE: VALE).
When you consider China’s rabid
demand for large amounts of raw
material, it’s no surprise that
Beijing is reaching long-term supply
agreements with companies like Vale,
Rio Tinto and BHP.
But it’s not until you put China’s
strongly emergent consumer demand
together with the precipitous drop
in the value of the U.S. dollar that
you get the complete picture.
You see, in the absence of an
alternative reserve currency, real
assets are a nice hedge against U.S.
dollar weakness. And if -- like
China -- you have $2.3 trillion in
international reserves, you need
some sort of portfolio
diversification.
What makes this investment premise
even better is that China is not the
only positive emerging market story:
Brazil, India and Russia also look
strong. Hence, with global growth
accelerating -- and a U.S. currency
depreciating -- commodities such as
minerals are red hot and getting
hotter.
The rise in consumer purchasing
power in China, India, Brazil,
Russia and other emerging economies
will lead to a sharp spike in
electricity consumption as an
enormous wave of new consumers buy
televisions, washing machines,
refrigerators and other consumer
electronics.
BHP sees energy demand growing at an
annual rate of +8% in China and +7%
in India. And it has wisely
positioned itself to capitalize on
this trend.
Coal is the most widely used energy
source in the world, accounting for
about 40% of global energy
production. And BHP is one of the
world’s largest coal producers, with
mines in South Africa, South
America, Australia, and the United
States. Also, it’s fair to say that
demand for coking coal, which is
used to fire steel smelters, will
rise exponentially when steel
production recovers.
BHP also owns and operates
Australia’s Olympic Dam, which has
the world’s largest uranium deposit.
BHP’s stock is
trading at 19 times earnings and is
essentially at the top of its
52-week range. In fact, the shares
have almost tripled from their
12-month lows.
However, the company is bound to
surprise to the upside as the dollar
devalues and the global economy
accelerates next year. Technically,
the stock is in a solid uptrend.
Given the sizable gains the stock
has posted this year, you might see
some correction between now and year
end, which would be a superb
opportunity to add to your initial
position.
-- Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning |