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Published: November 17, 2009
If you've been following the market in
recent months, then that shouldn't come as a big surprise. After
all, prices for most agricultural commodities have come roaring
back as the global economic outlook has improved, and
agriculture-related stocks have followed suit.
For example, since the beginning of October 2009, corn price
have shot up +20.3%, cotton has gained +13.0%, and wheat has
bounced back +26.7%. With most of these commodities still
trading well below last year's highs, and with demand on the
rise thanks to an improving global economy, I expect this
rebound to continue.
This week's
Trade of the Week is an exchange-traded fund (ETF)
that is positioned to potentially profit from a rising tide in
the global agricultural market. The fund has tripled the
performance of the S&P 500 as agriculture stocks have rebounded,
and I expect those gains to continue in the coming months.
Take a look...
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I believe the broader stock market is headed a lot higher
between the end of this month and the end of January 2010. And
in an upward surging market, I expect agriculture-related stocks
to continue to outperform.
A great way to potentially profit from the ongoing rebound in
this market is by purchasing the PowerShares Global
Agriculture Fund (Nasdaq: PAGG). This ETF tracks the Global
Agriculture Index, which includes the largest and most liquid
agriculture and farming-related stocks in the world.
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- PAGG is trading above my 10-week time-shifted trendline.
Over the past year, that trendline has served almost like a
lower support level. As PAGG moves higher, the trendline moves
higher. Each time PAGG sold off, it tended (not always, but
mostly) to stop moving lower as it came in contact with this
trendline. I expect this positive bullish trend to continue in
the coming months.
- The entire agriculture industry is trending in a bullish
direction. This adds some follow-through and momentum to PAGG's
share price, as a rising tide should lift shares of the fund's
various agriculture-related holdings.
- I like the fact that this ETF is in a very strong bull-mode,
having gained approximately +60% during the past year. PAGG
could move a lot higher in the coming months if the current
trend continues.
Action to Take:
- Buy PAGG with a limit order at $25.50 (Good for the Week)
- Set an initial stop loss at $22.57
- Target price = $28.00
Potential Profit:
+9.8%
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Mike Turner
Editor
Mastering the Markets
Trade of the Week |