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Published: December 10, 2009
Benjamin Franklin once referred to the
magic of compound interest as the "8th wonder of the universe"
for its ability to systematically accumulate wealth. Inflation,
then, which systematically destroys wealth, must be an evil
twin.
Nothing is quite like the relentless rise in the prices of
everyday goods and services -- it ravages currency and stifles
economic growth. Central governments around the world are on
constant guard to keep inflation bottled up -- because once
unleashed, it can be extremely difficult to stop.
But we've been bitten by this bug before. Maybe you remember the
late 1970s, when the government raised rates to prohibitive
levels to combat runaway inflation -- mortgage rates topped 19%.
Could history repeat itself? You bet it could, and the time to
position your portfolio accordingly is now.
Back in 1979, you could pick up a stamp for 15 cents, a loaf of
bread for 58 cents and a gallon of gas for 86 cents. A new
automobile would set you back about $3,500 on average, and a
home went for just $63,000. Keep in mind, though, median
household income was $16,000 at the time.
Had you invested $10,000 in a brand new 30-year Treasury bond
paying 10.7%, the $1,070 in annual interest would have been
enough to pay for a year's worth of gas -- with enough left over
to buy 100 gallons of milk and 280 dozen eggs.
Clearly, the interest generated by that bond (which would be
maturing soon) won't go nearly as far these days.
Do you think it will be any different 30 years from today? If
prices continue appreciating at the same pace, brace yourself
for gas being $10 a gallon, $20 for a movie ticket, and a
whopping million dollars for a decent suburban home.
That in itself is a good argument to steer clear of long-term
bonds at the moment; inflation will steadily erode the
purchasing power of fixed income payments.
Fortunately, there are ways to turn the tables. In fact, certain
asset classes don't just protect against inflation, but
handsomely profit from it.
Earlier, we examined the impact of inflation on a Treasury Bond
purchased in 1979. But what if for every uptick in inflation,
the principal value of that bond had ratcheted higher as well?
Assuming inflation rose +2.5% annually (the long-term average),
the bond would now be maturing at $20,975 instead of being
locked in at $10,000. That's exactly what Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are built to do.
First offered in 1997, these unique securities are tethered
to a variant of the consumer price index (CPI). Coupon rates are
fixed, but the principal value of the bond floats to keep pace
with inflation.
For example, a $10,000 bond with a 10-year maturity might offer
a modest interest rate of 2.5%. Initially, investors could
expect yearly payments of $250. But if inflation rears its ugly
head and climbs +5% annually, then the bond would be worth
$10,500 at the end of the first year, $11,025 at the end of the
second, and so on... eventually maturing with a value of
$16,289.
There are several ETFs offering exposure to these securities,
the largest of which is iShares Barclay's TIPS Bond (NYSE:
TIP). But I give the edge to Pimco ETF Trust 1-5 Year
(NYSE: STPZ), in part because its limited portfolio duration
means less susceptibility to rising interest rates (for all
their perks, TIPS are still bonds and sensitive to rate
fluctuations).
Short-term TIPS like those held by STPZ are a pure-play on
inflation and have the strongest correlation to changes in the
CPI. And the portfolio carries a flawless 'AAA' credit rating to
boot.
As a rule, shorter-term TIPS are preferable whenever real yields
are rising. There are three primary drivers that could cause
this: Fed rate hikes, rebounding economic growth, and higher
credit risk for the U.S. government. I think all three are
foregone conclusions.
In exchange for inflation protection, TIPS investors must be
willing to accept lower yields. But TIPS have had low breakeven
rates because of the deflationary environment. Just a few months
ago, 10-Year Treasuries were yielding 3.5%, while comparable
TIPS were paying 1.8%.
That spread implies expectations for an inflation rate of just
1.7% -- we could easily see the CPI rising at two to three times
that pace. STPZ currently yields a shade under 2%. But if you're
looking to make sure at least a portion of your assets keep pace
with rising inflation, then this is an ideal solution.
If TIPS sound appealing, you're not alone. Along with gold, this
sector has been flooded with more new cash than any other during
the past few months. The iShares TIPS offering attracted nearly
$850 million in September.
Nevertheless, STPZ is an attractive idea for patient investors
looking to sleep soundly during inflationary times.
-- Nathan Slaughter
Editor
StreetAuthority Market Advisor
Half-Priced Stocks
The ETF Authority
P.S. -- Remember how TIPS funds were first offered in 1997? Well
these revolutionary investment vehicles used to be reserved
almost exclusively for Wall Street's elite. But that's changed
now. To find out more about these securities,
click here. |