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Published: January 9, 2010
Everyone likes a good list to start a new
year. Whether it's a "Top 10" of this or a "Best of" that, it's
always a fun exercise.
But when it comes to picking stocks, nothing is as easy as it
looks. If you're an investor looking for international exposure,
that goes double.
It's easy to think of the common names. Brazil, Russia, India
and China -- were all big winners in 2009. But the BRIC
countries, for all their pluses, have some minuses, too. China
trades at a rich valuation of 35 times earnings, for example,
and Russia is utterly dependent on energy.
Drawing from the BRIC well overlooks a lot of opportunity.
Turkey, to name one, returned +110% in 2009, far more than India
or China and not far from the gains that Brazil and Russia
delivered.
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Turkey's not the half of it. A number of
international markets show a lot of promise -- and this profit
potential, thanks to
exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has never been easier to
access. These baskets of securities trade on U.S. exchanges and
offer individual investors instant access to markets that were
once the exclusive province of the brokerages' international
desks.
Here are three international markets for 2010 and the best ETFs
that track them:
Poland -- 2009 performance: +52%
Years of smart fiscal management and steady growth have
solidified Poland as the strongest Central and Eastern European
economy. About 70% of gross domestic product comes from domestic
consumption, which allowed for +5% GDP a growth rate in 2008
while much of the world was mired in recession. When the numbers
come in for 2009, the country is expected to post modest growth.
If so, it will be the only European Union economy that expanded.
Poland's unemployment has risen, but low manufacturing costs
should keep the economic engines running and provide more jobs.
A young and expanding middle class is one of the best things to
like about Poland's economy. About 50% of the population is
under 35, and wages have gone up +58% in the past 10 years. This
means more people will have more purchasing power, which propels
the economy to continued growth.
How to invest: Market Vectors Poland ETF (NYSE: PLND) is
the easiest way to get broad exposure to Poland. The fund is 40%
weighted in financials, a concentration that includes a few of
Poland's big banks, which should benefit from increased lending
as the economy develops and the middle class emerges. Other
sectors include energy (14% of assets), industrials (13%),
telecom (8%) and consumer goods (5%).
Vietnam -- 2009 Performance: +51%
China may yet be the driver of the world's growth engine, but
Southeast Asian countries are getting in on the action, too.
Countries like Vietnam have benefited from a spillover in demand
for low-cost labor in China. Now the country is a go-to source
for low-cost labor thanks to its educated and skilled workforce.
All this helped Vietnam become the second-fastest growing
economy in the world in 2008, and it's also why GDP is expected
to grow +6% to +7% annually between 2010 and 2012. The country
is still under communist rule, but if you can get past the irony
of the stock exchange's name -- the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
-- it's pretty clear that, like China, at least
some change is in the air.
How to invest: Vietnam is considered a "frontier" market,
which means investors must have a stomach for substantial risk,
as the stocks tend to be volatile. No Vietnamese companies trade
on U.S. exchanges, so the best way to gain exposure is through
the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: VNM). About 70% of
the market cap of the underlying index is of companies based in
Vietnam. The rest are companies that do at least half their
business in the country. The fund is weighted toward financials
(43% of assets), industrial (26%), energy (25%) and consumer
services (4%).
South Africa -- 2009 Performance: +68%
What a difference a few years makes. In the 1990s, the world saw
South Africa begin to heal the wounds caused by Apartheid. Now,
this summer, South Africa will host the biggest single-sport
event in the world, the World Cup, and showcase its development
to the world.
The development South Africa has undergone is impressive. In 15
years, it has opened its markets for trade, promoted foreign
investment, reduced deficits and reined in inflation. It has
been rewarded for these efforts with investment-grade government
debt, burgeoning banking and telecom sectors and a rising
standard of living. All this comes aside from South Africa's
mining industry. The country is largest producer of gold and
platinum in the world.
How to invest: Investors can go one-stop shopping for
South African equities with the iShares MSCI South Africa
Index (NYSE: EZA) ETF.
Market Advisor Editor Nathan Slaughter
has written
extensively on gold's potential to continue rallying long-term.
If you share the same sentiment, EZA is a worth consideration.
About 32% of the fund's weighting is in South Africa's
substantial mining sector with firms like MTN Group (11%),
AngloGold (6%), Impala Platinum Holdings (6%) and Gold Fields
(4.5%). The country's promising banking (27%), telecom (11%) and
energy (10%) sectors are also represented in the fund.
-- Brad Briggs
Staff Writer
Street
Authority
P.S. Still interested in a "Top 10" list for the coming year?
Start with Market Advisor's. Since 2003, their annual "Top Ten
Stocks" report has generated compounded returns of +96.6%. They
just released their picks for 2010 yesterday.
Check them out. |