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Published: January 18, 2010
One thing more than any other makes
searching for value difficult these days: Loans.
The best way to search for discounted companies is to set up a
screen that looks at
net asset value -- assets minus liabilities. (To see how
profitable value stocks can be, scroll down to the third table
on
this page: 12 value stocks, 12 winners, average gain of +88%!)
If the market capitalization of a company is less than the net
asset value (or "shareholder equity"), then an investor may have
found a bargain, as most companies trade at a multiple to rather
than a fraction of book value.
But loans, believe it or not, totally screw that up. Consider: I
ran a screen seeking U.S. companies with a market cap of more
than $1 billion and a price-to-book ratio of less than 0.75.
This returned about 40 companies, half of them financial
institutions. And each one of them was on the list because of
loans.
A loan, at least on the balance sheet, is carried at its
historical cost. If you use $1 billion to make $1 billion worth
of loans, then your books are going to show $1 billion worth of
assets, less whatever amount has been paid back.
The trouble with that, especially these days, is that any given
billion dollars' worth of loans likely isn't worth a billion
dollars because of an increase in the default rate.
Some loans, of course, are going to go bad even in the best of
times. That's never a good thing, but it's to be expected and it
is rightly treated as a cost of doing business.
Today, however, default rates are much higher. They are so much
higher, in fact, that they're far more than a mere cost of doing
business -- something to be subtracted from the asset's overall
return -- and have become a factor that means the value of the
asset must be adjusted.
So even though a bank may have $100 billion in assets, the
market is going to adjust the value of those assets based on the
actual value of the loans rather than their historical cost.
And, voila, you get a whole bunch of banks with "cheap" assets
showing up on value screens. But the assets aren't classically
cheap: You're not getting a deal if you buy these banks, you're
getting what looks like a deal because of the disparity between
the historical cost and the actual value of the assets.
So the trick -- or one trick anyway -- is just to throw out the
banks and look at the other companies in the screen. And there
are some interesting choices:
Wireless Telecom
Three wireless companies made the list: Sprint Nextel Corp.
(NYSE: S), United States Cellular Corp. (NYSE: USM)
and Leap Wireless International, Inc. (Nasdaq: LEAP).
Sprint Nextel hasn't made money for the past five quarters and
is poised to deliver a net loss for 2010 as well. Unites States
Cellular actually turns a profit, but it's already trading at
well above what I would consider a fair valuation given its 2010
earnings outlook, which means it offers only downside. And Leap
Wireless, which sells the popular prepaid Cricket cell phone
service, posted a profit in only two years of the millennium's
first decade and likely will lose even more this year.
Value Verdict: These stocks are cheap for a reason -- no one
wants to own them. The companies aren't making any money and
have bleak futures as far as the bottom line is concerned.
Investors should look elsewhere.
The Coal-Fired Utilities
Two of the companies on the list are electric utilities over
which hangs a cloud of uncertainty because of the cap and trade
bill, which could restrict their operations or render them
unprofitable. One of the companies is RRI Energy, Inc. (NYSE:
RRI). It has had such deep-seated profitability problems --
multi-hundred-million-dollar losses in three of the past four
years as well as the first three quarters of 2009 -- that it
can't be considered.
The other, however, Mirant Corp. (NYSE: MIR), bears
looking into. The company, which sells power to power companies
rather than to individual customers, is profitable. Very
profitable, in fact: Its operating margins are near 30%. Despite
this, Mirant is trading at only five times its trailing 12-month
earnings, a substantial discount to its typical valuation of
about 7.5 times earnings.
This is for two reasons: The first is legislative risk. If
Congress imposes strict emissions controls on power producers,
Mirant's margins could be squeezed to almost nothing. Second,
the overall earnings outlook for 2010 is for less than half the
profit Mirant turned in for all of 2009.
Investors willing to look beyond the upcoming year and who
foresee Mirant engineering its environmental footprint so as to
comply and thrive despite emissions regulation likely see a lot
of value in these shares. The United States will always need
power and utilities will always need to purchase juice beyond
their production capacity to handle peak demand. That bodes well
for Mirant going forward.
The High Yielders
Two of the securities that emerged in my value screen are high
yielders that look extremely promising for value investors who
like a rich dividend stream.
The first is HRPT Properties Trust (NYSE: HRP), which
owns commercial real estate in urban cores, much of which is
leased to U.S. government agencies or to medical clinics. Its
assets can be purchased for 65 cents on the dollar, a great deal
given its earnings, which amount to a 7.4% yield. This payout --
amounting to some $26.9 million a quarter -- was easily covered
by roughly $59 million in cash from operations in the most
recent quarter.
The second high-yielding security my screen found is
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE: BIP), which
owns electrical and transportation assets around the world.
These assets offer geographic diversity, with no region
composing more than a third of assets. The assets, power lines,
railroads and forests, also generate steady cash flow -- 73% of
revenue comes either from regulated businesses or long-term
contracts. The stock pays a quarterly dividend and yields a
respectable 6.2%. These assets are available to investors for
only 72 cents on the dollar.
These two securities may well be the best this screen uncovered.
You could wade through bank balance sheets until rapture and not
find assets of this quality at these low prices. Both of these
undervalued securities present investors the opportunity to
capture a significant income stream in addition to the
possibility of capital
appreciation.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing
P.S. If you're serious about high yields, you need to learn more
about Carla Pasternak's "High-Yield Stock of the Month" for
January 2010. This dominant player delivered +50% gains in 2009
and saw its earnings surge +69% last quarter. It's never missed
a single dividend payment, dividends have rocketed +800% in the
past five years, and the stock still yields nearly 10%.
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