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Published: March 3, 2010
It's that time of year again.
Not March Madness -- that comes a little later. It's shareholder
letter season.
Warren Buffett has issued his annual missive to the owners of
his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B). On
May 1, 35,000 of them will gather in Omaha for what Buffett
calls the Woodstock of capitalism, the annual meeting.
But what it really is, I'd say, is the greatest concentration of
wealth in the United States at any given time. An arena full of
multimillionaires listening to the second-richest man in the
world hold court.
Every shareholder at that meeting understands something about
investing that, in my view, most people just don't get. It's
something they have learned, over the years, from the
shareholder letter.
It's this: Michael Corleone was wrong.
You get the reference. You may even remember the famous scene
from the movie. The godfather, having been shot, is sick.
Michael and Sonny and the capos are discussing what to do about
Virgil Solluzzo and the corrupt police Capt. McClusky. Upon
hearing Michael's suggestion, the oldest brother suggests that
Michael is letting things get to him.
"Nothing personal," Michael avers. "It's strictly business."
That phrase drew a line that thereafter separated the two
things.
It is an absolutely false dichotomy. The lesson of Warren
Buffett, what he has taught for years, is that investing is
extraordinarily personal. It's a relationship that requires
trust, openness, honesty and intimacy.
Consider the wording I used above.
You probably read over it.
But Buffett would notice it in a second. The word? Owners.
Buffett thinks of himself first, foremost and always, as an
owner of businesses. Another word that he uses frequently in the
letter is partner. No one -- not one single person -- does
business with Warren Buffett. They have the opportunity to
partner with him. The best businessmen in the world, the most
successful, have the chance to align their interests with
arguably the best businessman of all time -- and have him do the
same. Buffett is at the top of the organization chart at
Berkshire, sure. But that's paper, and to Buffett business is
never about paper but about people -- and the extraordinary
results that people can deliver. Buffett has written for years
-- decades -- that the money is the easy part. Berkshire always
keeps plenty of cash on hand. What he can't buy, and what he and
(Vice Chairman) Charlie Munger can't supply, is talent. They
can't just reproduce leaders like Ajit Jain, the head of
National Indemnity and one of the most knowledgeable insurance
minds in the world. Berkshire can't mint able managers like Tony
Neely at Geico or Dave Sokol at MidAmerican Energy.
The question is not which one of those men will be CEO when
Buffett dies. (For the record, my money's on Ajit, but Mr. Sokol,
Buffett's fixer, isn't a bad bet. More on how to make money from
this later.)
The question is what this relationship mindset can do for
individual investors.
Answer: It makes them not just smarter but wiser.
Consider a rental car. Travelers are rough on them. We've all
gunned the engine, dinged a door and taken chances when we drove
them. If the car got banged up, who cares? It's going back to
the rental counter regardless.
But think about the car you owned that you loved best. You kept
this chariot polished. You pumped premium gas. You knew every
feature and maintained every switch in perfect working order.
You parked in such a way that it avoided harsh sunlight, grocery
carts and even other cars.
The stocks you own -- if I had to guess --
are rental cars.
But for owners of Berkshire Hathaway, their shares are treated
like a favorite car. And the most careful driver in the world is
Warren Buffett.
What difference does it make? Over time, this ownership
mentality has delivered a +434,057% return versus a total return
in the S&P 500 of +5,430%. Buffett correctly points out two
things about this number in this year's letter: First, the gain
he touts is in the tangible book value per share, which has
averaged +20.3% compounded annually since Buffett took over
Berkshire in 1965. Second, had he used the stock price as his
yardstick the results would look even better -- nearly by a
factor of two, in fact. Berkshire has achieved a cumulative gain
of an astonishing +801,516%.
Like the proud owner that he is, Buffett continually
characterizes Berkshire as underpriced relative to its intrinsic
value.
There are four pillars to the Buffett mindset. Investors who
embrace them, as most Berkshire Hathaway shareholders do, are
miles ahead of the smartest minds on Wall Street.
Honesty. Buffett is relentlessly honest. When he errs, he
owns up to it. Sometimes this means taking an action that he'd
prefer not to, such as selling ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP)
at a loss. But Buffett was honest. He admitted that he got
caught up in the moment and overpaid.
Commitment. Buffett doesn't do rental cars. He treats
every business as his own. When he bought Burlington Northern
Santa Fe this year, he said he expected Berkshire would own it
for a century. No one doubted him. When Buffett buys, he buys
because he is willing to partner for the long haul.
Discipline. Buffett has a list of criteria for the
investments he makes. He's never shared what the precise
guidelines are -- he has hinted that there was a one-page form
he used to have to fill out when he worked for his mentor, Ben
Graham -- but he's outlined them generally in every annual
report as well as in the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders'
manual.
Ask yourself this: Have you ever heard of a company with a
shareholders' manual? Doesn’t the fact that there is one -- and
that it has stayed the same for decades -- make you want to
invest with Buffett? I know it makes me glad I hold shares, as
does the fact that Buffett doesn't adjust the owners' manual to
suit his fancy. He addressed such tactics in this year's letter:
"[Our yardsticks keep] us from the temptation of seeing where
the arrow of performance lands and then painting the bull's eye
around it." He's not lying: Buffett has used the same paragraph
to open the shareholders letter for at least the past 20 years.
Only the numbers have changed. That's consistency.
Warren Buffett's greatest talent -- in conjunction with this
discipline -- is his patience. If a deal doesn't work, he waits
until it will, or he does something else.
Communication. Buffett communicates an enormous amount of
information to shareholders about Berkshire's operating units,
which are insurance, utilities, other companies owned and
investments. He explains, educates and informs. This is on
display no place the way it is during the upcoming annual
meeting, during which Buffett and Munger answer questions for
several hours. Buffett's understanding of every business unit
and his knack for detail are uncanny. He can answer questions
longer than most shareholders can listen.
These four pillars are what the shareholder letter is all about.
Investors who aspire to these qualities, and demand them from
the companies they are owners of, are positioned for success.
Investors, in other words, who make it personal.
Now, briefly, let me tell you how to make money on Buffett's
succession, which I hope is years away. Take a sum of money, say
$5,000, and put it into an extremely safe investment, one that
you can liquidate immediately, and then do what Buffett does:
Wait for the opportunity. The opportunity you're looking for is
Buffett's retirement, upon which I expect Berkshire stock will
plummet. That -- if you must time the market -- is when a trader
should buy Berkshire.
If you're an investor, however -- if you're an owner of
businesses like Buffett -- then the best time to buy Berkshire
Hathaway never changes.
It was yesterday.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing |