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Published: March 12, 2010
Say you and I are friends.
And let's further assume you're fabulously wealthy.
You've come to me for advice. What would I tell you to do with
your money?
I'd tell you to do three things.
The first: Buy farmland.
Sounds nuts, I know. Farming is technical, labor intensive,
highly risky and remarkably capital intensive. But mark my
words: Agricultural economics are going to undergo a sea change
in the next 20 years.
The reason: Biofuel.
Right now, "biofuel" means corn-based ethanol. That's changing
-- fast. Chemists and biologists are engineering what will
amount to no less than an agricultural revolution.
They've figured out how to unlock the sugar found in all plant
material and turn it into motor fuel.
That means it's now possible for the United States, long
dependent on sometimes hostile and always volatile foreign
powers, to grow its fuel rather than to buy it for cash. Dozens
of pilot-scale projects have been built, and thousands of
commercial-scale biorefineries will spring up across the nation
and use plant waste -- corn cobs, rice straw, corn stalks, wood
scraps and so on -- as feed stocks to create cellulosic ethanol.
Federal timetables call for 16 billion gallons a year by 2022,
up from 6.5 million today.
The result of this will be a massive upward revaluation of
cropland that accompanies a huge uptrend in the land's ability
to generate returns.
This will be
Norman Borlaug (the American Nobel laureate known as the
father of the Green Revolution) to the fifth power. It will also
foster an urban exodus, as families return to the nation's small
towns to take advantage of good wages and high quality of life.
Owning farmland is a great way to play the inevitable and
irreversible trend toward biofuel.
(If you're not ready to make a seven-figure commitment to a
parcel of ground in, say, Lincoln County, Kansas -- where I'm
from -- then you need to own shares of the biotech company that
makes the enzymes that enable the biochemistry behind cellulosic
ethanol. That company, Dyadic International (OTC: DYAI),
has already delivered a triple-digit gain to readers of my
exclusive
Government-Driven Investing newsletter. I think it's
just getting started!)
The second thing I'd tell you to do with
your fortune: Get your hands on the hottest
commodity in the world.
It ain't gold. It's not silver. It's not even uranium. It's
lithium.
This lightweight metal is used in the battery in your cell phone
and your laptop, in your iPod and your Kindle. Highly efficient
lithium-ion technology is also what's going to deliver the
energy that propels the drivetrain in battery-powered cars.
If you want to get rich, then hear my phrase and heed
these words: This is the inevitable future.
Electric cars are unavoidable. A recent article in The Economist
explained why: "In the next 40 years, the global fleet of
passenger cars is expected to quadruple, to nearly three
billion. China, which will soon overtake America as the world's
biggest car market, could have as many cars on its roads in 2050
as there are on the planet today; India's fleet may have
multiplied 50-fold."
The thing is, India and China have been dependent on the rest of
the world forever. They're not going to be eternally hamstrung
by oil sheiks or tin-pot dictators like Venezuela's Chavez or
even Russia's Putin. The developing world wants green cars.
And they can have them. There's no incumbency to the
gasoline-powered car in most of the world because most of the
world doesn't even own cars now. But as China and India grow
wealthier, that will change. The governments there (and here)
will see to it that electric-vehicle technology is embraced, and
huge markets for electric cars will develop. That means huge
profits to be made by the smart investors who control the
world's supply of lithium.
Who's that going to be? Let's ask The New York Times. In
an article published Tuesday, it said: "The industry leader … is
Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE: SQM), a Chilean
fertilizer company."
I agree. That's why I made this exact recommendation to
Government-Driven
Investing subscribers. Last November, in fact, five
months before The Times took notice.
Third strategy for the uberwealthy: Head to the emerging world.
Don't go there for telecom, high debt yields or even consumer
products, but for oil. A recent oil discovery in Uganda, for
instance, could mean billions for its developer. And a handful
of teeny British petroleum upstarts look like they've hit a
gusher in the Falklands Basin, an offshore field that could
contain billions of barrels of crude. (They've managed to shake
up a diplomatic hornets' nest and now the U.S. State Department,
the British Foreign Office, Argentine President Cristina
Fernandez and even Hugo Chavez have entered the fray. The smart
money -- that is, yours -- should bet that the Falklands will
stay decidedly British and that these little oil companies will
become decidedly delectable takeover targets.
As I look at these three strategies, I notice a common thread.
Government action.
Only governments can incentivize electric cars on a national
level. Without tax breaks for research, subsidies for
green-collar jobs and huge tax credits to early adopters,
electric cars would be exorbitantly pricey and the exclusive
purview of Hollywood liberals, well-heeled environmentalists and
rich college kids in Berkeley and Boulder. But with the leader
of the free world actively selling the Chevy Volt -- produced by
a company his administration bailed out just for that purpose --
you can bet buyers will line up.
Result: Lithium booms.
Only governments can write laws that mandate the output of
biofuel grow from 6.5 million gallons to 16 billion gallons. It
takes the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Energy working in
concert to make sure that the crops can be grown, the plants can
be built and the companies have enough capital. That's what's
happening now: The government is using stimulus money to provide
grants and using Uncle Sam's credit to provide loan guarantees
for cellulosic ethanol plants. The EPA had to adjust this year's
output target down, from 100 million, but you can rest assured
the government incentives will bolster output in short order.
Result: Huge returns for enzyme makers, plant builders and even
seed companies. (You watch: Having made major advances in crop
yields using genetics, smart companies like Monsanto Co.
(NYSE: MON) will begin to introduce seeds in the next few
years that also boost the sugar content of their plants. This
will mean refineries can tease more ethanol from crop waste,
boosting ethanol production, lowering our dependence on foreign
oil and adding to the return on that section of ground you
bought.)
Finally, only government action can resolve international
disputes such as the diplomatic donnybrook raging in the South
Atlantic over the oil in the Falklands. You can bet that
Britain, which has controlled the island since 1833, will
prevail and pave the way for substantial profits.
Result: Huge gains for shareholders of the companies involved.
If you're Big Rich, or aspire to be, then it only makes sense to
follow Big Money. I'd suggest you always align your financial
interests with the various interests these and other governments
go to great lengths to support and protect.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing |