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Published: March 18,
2010
Tax time is rolling around. And it's one
more time when I'm reminded about how much I pay -- and
potentially still owe -- the government. So I thought this was a
fitting time to turn the tables -- and get a government to pay
me for awhile.
I could ask the U.S. government to pay me, but it wouldn't be
that impressive a paycheck. The yield on the 10-Year U.S.
Treasury note is only 3.7%. Luckily, I don't have to settle
for that. After all, a lot of other countries issue debt. And
because of the scary headlines about government debt, now may be
a good time to jump in.
Government bonds are relatively safe compared with other types
of debt. Companies and individuals can go bankrupt. But because
governments have taxing authority, they can usually meet their
debt obligations, come hell or high water. And no country wants
to default, as it would shatter its credit rating and raise the
cost of future borrowing.
That being said, some governments have defaulted. Russia
defaulted on $73 billion of debt back in 1998 -- causing the
currency to plunge more than -70% and forcing the country to
pay a +7.5% premium on newly issued debt. In 2001, Argentina
defaulted on $82 billion of debt, crippling its economy for
years. Peru, Ecuador, Moldavia, and Uruguay are also among the
handful of countries that have had issues paying back
government-issued debt in the last 30 years.
But even accounting for these well-known defaults, the sovereign
debt default rate is still far below that for corporate debt. In
a study conducted by Moody's, the credit-ratings agency found
that the default rate on
investment grade sovereign debt was just 0.667% after 10
years of issuance, compared with the corporate investment-grade
default rate of 2.008%. Even speculative sovereign debt had a
default rate nearly -30% lower than sub-investment grade
corporate debt.
In fact, the sovereign default rate is so low, sometimes its
true risk gets underestimated. Ratings agencies and debt
insurers can get complacent, especially when assessing the risks
of default from developed, and economically "more stable"
countries. This can result in debt that isn't accurately priced
for its risk. And when investors aren't being properly
compensated for their risk -- that's a problem.
Greece is in hot water. The country's debt grew so large that
investors began to worry about a potential government default.
Other European Union members like Portugal and Spain also have
monumental debt burdens.
So why is this good news for prospective
sovereign debt buyers?
It means that everyone is examining sovereign debt with a
fine-toothed comb. It improves the chances that debt is being
properly priced for its risk. And it means investors are being
appropriately paid for their risk.
It reminds me a little of the 80's movie, The World According
to Garp. The main character, played by Robin Williams, and
his wife are shopping for a house. As they stand outside a
prospective home, a small plane flies into the house. Williams
immediately says, "We'll take the house. Honey, the chances of
another plane hitting this house are astronomical. It's been
pre-disastered. We're going to be safe here."
While sovereign debt isn't necessarily "pre-disastered" from
default, the risk that it is overpriced or underinsured is lower
today than before the scary headlines started hitting the
newsstands.
For investors, the world of sovereign debt was all but closed
just a few years ago. However, thanks to the proliferation of
exchange-traded and closed-end funds, buying into the sovereign
debt of everywhere from Thailand to Turkey is now as simple as
buying a few shares on the NYSE.
And the yields are downright mouth-watering. In the March issue
of my
Daily Paycheck newsletter, I took the opportunity to add
two new funds to my portfolio that are focused on sovereign
debt. Among the picks --
a closed-end fund yielding 8.8%. This yield is high for a
sovereign debt fund, but it's not unheard of.
An added bonus? Most of the funds investing in sovereign debt
pay income monthly -- a nice treat for us income investors.
Amy Calistri
Editor
StreetAuthority's
Stock of the Month
The Daily Paycheck
P.S. -- I mentioned above a closed-end fund yielding
8.8%. I added 250 shares of this pick to my
Daily Paycheck portfolio on Monday afternoon. I invite
you to learn more about subscribing by visiting this link. Once
a subscriber, you too can read the entire profile of this
high-yield pick in my March issue. |