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Published: March 29, 2010
T. Boone Pickens is the quintessential
Texas oilman: outspoken, complex and savvy. He began his career
as a "wildcatter," drilling in areas not known to contain oil,
and eventually formed Mesa Petroleum in 1956, which would grow
to be one of the largest independent oil producers in the world
before being acquired by a private equity group and renamed
Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD). During the course of
his career, Pickens initiated headline-grabbing takeovers and
amassed a fortune of about $3 billion.
And whether it's his decidedly conservative political views, his
calls for increased production of wind energy and the promotion
of natural gas as an alternative to fossil fuels through the
"Pickens Plan," or his belief in "peak oil," which claims that
world oil production will soon cross the point of no return and
begin declining, Pickens is not without his detractors. But one
thing is for certain: The man knows oil. At 81, Pickens may have
retired from the day-to-day operations of oil exploration, but
when he speaks about energy, people listen.
Now, just because people listen doesn't automatically make him
an authority. But consider this: Pickens serves as the chairman
of BP Capital Management, a
hedge fund investing primarily in energy. Like many hedge
funds, it caters to the well-heeled and charges exorbitant fees.
The mere fact that wealthy individuals are willing to fork over
20% of profits to Pickens and his managers speaks volumes.
Unfortunately, most of us do not have the $5 million minimum
requirement to invest in the fund. What we do have, however, is
the Securities and Exchange Commission. Let me explain: every
institutional investor (hedge funds, mutual funds, pension
plans, etc.) is required to disclose its holdings to the SEC
quarterly in a 13F filing. These filings are available to the
public and can level the playing field a bit for smaller
investors willing to do a little digging.
In order to spare you the headache of sifting through these
filings, here's the most recent breakdown of BP Capital
Management's holdings:
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The hedge fund had five new buys in its
fourth-quarter 2009 filing, dated Feb. 16, 2010. Two of the new
buys, Fluor (NYSE: FLR) and Foster Wheeler AG (Nasdaq:
FWLT) stand out in particular. Both heavy construction
companies stand to benefit from a global turnaround by winning
contracts for oil and gas refineries, power plants and other
infrastructure projects.
So far, BP Capital's stake in McMoRan Exploration (NYSE:
MMR) has performed the best year-to-date, gaining +74%,
mainly on the back of a major discovery in the Davy Jones field
in the Gulf of Mexico.
Pickens' largest holding, offshore oil driller Transocean
(NYSE: RIG) is perhaps the most compelling name in the
portfolio. The economic downturn combined with falling oil
prices led to a decrease in demand for offshore drilling and
created a surplus of rigs that were coming online just as the
downturn hit. The world's thirst for oil will likely return as
soon as recovery sets in, but make no mistake, most of the oil
left is deep offshore within the earth and will not be easy to
extract. Transocean's massive, complex machinery, deployed in
areas as far-reaching as the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Australia
and Angola, will be needed to get it out.
The company has a reputation as the biggest and best in the
business: Its fleet of 70 drillships and semisubmersibles more
than doubles the size of its next-largest competitor. It also
has a $30 billion
backlog locked up for the next five years, which provides a
nice blanket of security.
At just above $80 a share, Transocean is trading at half the
level it was in 2008, when oil was at $150 a barrel. And while
we may not see oil spike to the levels it did back then, it's
all but certain that demand will increase as the global economy
recovers, developing countries demand more fossil fuel and land
reserves are depleted.
Transocean changes hands for just seven times earnings, a -62%
discount to the S&P's multiple of just under 19. Earnings are
expected to grow +17% during the next five years, yet the stock
commands a
PEG of just 0.5. Add it all up, and Transocean appears to be
a deep value that could reward patient shareholders with huge
gains.
-- Brad Briggs
Staff Writer
Street
Authority
P.S. Near-simultaneous news alerts coming out of OPEC and
The Federal Reserve last week point to soaring oil prices in the
near future. If you're looking for an easy way to cash in,
you need to read this special report. |