|
Published: March 31, 2010
Commodities shape just about every aspect
of our lives, from the cost of a tank of gas to the price of a
gallon of milk. But instead of being subjected to the whims of
volatile commodities, smart investors find a way to soften the
blow. Let me explain...
During the summer of 2008, when crude oil prices were near $150
a barrel, drivers felt a sting in their wallets. But while
prices where high, companies like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
raked in record profits. This example doesn't just apply to oil,
either. Many other commodities traded near record highs during
that time.
Take corn. Thanks to ethanol subsidies, the price of corn flour
in Mexico nearly quadrupled in a matter of months in the summer
of 2007. And while that country's poor rioted over the cost of
corn tortillas, companies like Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:
ADM) made mounds of cash.
During the subprime crisis in the United States, people began
stripping abandoned homes of copper wiring, hoping to capitalize
on high copper prices. And when metals prices were near their
highs in 2008, stories began to pop up about some who even went
as far as to steal manhole coverings to be melted down for their
base value. This just didn't occur in one or two places -- it
happened in cities around the world.
I suppose theft is one way to go about profiting from
commodities, but might I suggest something a little safer (and
legal) for investors -- simply buy commodity stocks, namely ones
that will do well when prices are high. With many commodity
prices well off their highs, investors have a chance to pick up
some world-class stocks on the cheap. And because of the
boom-or-bust nature of commodities, many of them will be in a
prime position when the time comes and prices rebound.
Today's Inside the Numbers focuses on finding these
bargains.
Our StreetAuthority research team screened for stocks meeting
the following criteria:
-- Energy, agriculture or metal stocks
-- Market cap greater than $500 million
--
PEG ratio below 1.0
-- Debt/Equity under 100%
Here's what turned up:
|
 |
Last week's Inside the Numbers
identified stocks trading near their 52-week lows that are
primed for a comeback. Not surprisingly, ExxonMobil makes
another appearance here. The stock would appear to be priced
slightly below earnings growth expectations (with a PEG of
0.80), but when we take the 2.4% yield into account, the stock
is fairly priced. (P/E of 16.8 / Growth estimate of 14.4% + 2.4%
yield). With that said, there's not a more obvious "can't miss"
stock that will benefit from a spike in crude prices.
Which brings me to my next point... notice any similarities in
the table? With a few exceptions, all of these stocks are
involved in the oil business.
A few familiar names appear, such as Weatherford
International (NYSE: WFT). The oil & gas equipment and
services firm turned up when I
examined the portfolio of legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens'
hedge fund, BP Capital. Analysts expect the company to grow
earnings +35% in the next five years, yet the stock is valued at
a -38% discount to its growth potential (a PEG of 0.62).
Transocean (NYSE: RIG), a deeply discounted offshore oil
driller, is another name
I pointed out in last week's Inside the Numbers.
Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Noble (NYSE: NE),
Ensco International (NYSE: ESV) and Pride International
(NYSE: PDE) are other offshore drillers that have rebounded
after crude prices fell from record highs. But with crude at $80
a barrel (compared with its summer 2008 peak of $150) and a
global recovery beginning to take hold, nearly all of these
drillers could benefit from higher prices.
Diamond Offshore, in particular, is an interesting candidate for
investors with an income bent. Where Transocean specializes in
deepwater drilling of 10,000 feet or more, Diamond's niche is in
the mid-water drilling business. Also different from Transocean,
Diamond has held back from building new rigs and instead focused
on buying older rigs from cash-starved competitors. This
strategy has insulated Diamond from the build-out glut in the
industry and helped support its generous 8.0% dividend. Going
forward, Diamond will have to invest more in updating its fleet,
but should keep paying a reasonably high dividend to
shareholders. (Its dividend
payout ratio is 81%).
-- Brad Briggs
Staff Writer
Street
Authority |