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Published: April 2, 2010
With a stroke of his pen -- and after a
hellacious fight with the Congress -- President Obama brought
massive change to the health-care industry.
He's doing the same with another industry today. The industry is
different and he doesn't need Congressional approval. And the
plan has already created $2.2 billion in wealth for investors.
So what's going on?
Would you be surprised if I told you it was politics?
Presidential power, some would argue, is cumulative. It builds.
Winning presidents tend to keep on winning; losing presidents
tend to keep on losing. After more than a year in office, the
verdict on whether Mr. Obama will turn out to be a perpetual
winner like FDR or a chronic loser like Jimmy Carter has yet to
be determined.
Making such predictions is dinner-table sport inside the
Beltway. Everyone has an opinion these days, but even the
cagiest political operators should be loathe to make too bold a
forecast. Today's supercharged political climate is full of
surprises.
The fact is no one knows how the Obama administration ultimately
will be judged.
But I can tell you what's coming next.
As you know, health care was a cornerstone of the president's
agenda. With the bill signed, Mr. Obama is wasting no time. He
took a quick victory lap to Afghanistan to change the focus,
came back and met with the French president for the same reason,
and now he's ready for a new storyline.
He's got it. If you saw the news today you know what it is.
Mr. Obama is clearly moving on to another key element of vision:
The environment.
We've all heard stories about how smart Mr. Obama is. And though
the president is undoubtedly very intelligent -- and calmly
disciplined -- both of those labels undersell him. In addition
to his brain power and temperament, Mr. Obama is also very
shrewd.
You see, though I would suspect he would agree that presidential
power is cumulative, I think he also knows he can't just ram
through another bill without any support from the other side of
the aisle. That's not a purely political calculation, it's
bowing to the unavoidable reality that Senate rules don't allow
for another reconciliation process this year.
But with the midterm elections coming up, it's unlikely that the
White House would railroad through more legislation even if the
option were available. Mr. Obama and his advisers know that if
you engage your enemy in the same way too long, he will adapt to
your tactics. So the president is switching gears. That's why
he's been talking about bipartisanship again, going so far as to
quote the old Ronald Reagan line about "disagreeing agreeably."
It's also why he's been supporting the construction of new
nuclear power plants, a key Republican energy priority. The fact
is Mr. Obama is priming the political pump.
And what's going to come through the pump
next?
Crude.
The President is flip-flopping on a longstanding policy and
opening up nearly 300 million acres -- or about 480,000 square
miles -- for offshore oil exploration, some of it for the first
time.
The action added at least $1.5 billion in
market value to the offshore drilling industry's
major players. President George W. Bush might have been an
oilman -- and, to be fair, he did try to open up some areas for
drilling -- but it's Barack Obama who today snapped his fingers
and added nearly $1 billion in market cap to Transocean (NYSE:
RIG), the leading offshore drilling company.
The president didn't stop with offshore drilling. To placate
supporters who are bound to be aghast at the drilling, he threw
environmentalists a bone and announced he will also increase the
military's use of biofuels and add hybrid vehicles to the
government's fleet. He made his announcement in front of a
fighter jet that will run on biofuel -- not because that was the
most important part of the announcement (it wasn't) but because
he wanted a better visual on the news than offshore oil
platforms, which would incense Greens.
Investors who own offshore drillers should hang on to them. And
all growth-oriented investors should consider them: Offshore
drillers
are trading at very low valuations --
Noble Corp.
(NYSE: NE) sells for 6.5 times earnings; Transocean for 7.3.
Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) for 9.0. Part of that is
uncertainty: No one knew what the Administration was going to
do, especially after Mr. Obama said in his State of the Union
address that some hard choices about drilling were going to have
to be made. Now that those decisions have been made, all three
of those industry-leading companies are steals. That's not just
because of their long-term prospects but also because of their
recent performance.
Transocean, for example, which operates 138 mobile offshore
drilling rigs, grew its earnings from $0.22 a share in 2003 to
an astonishing $12.48 last year, a gain of +5,572.7%. That's
reflected in its historical earnings multiple, which is more
than 40 times earnings for the past five years. That kind of
earnings growth is possible again. The shares are up nearly +47%
in the past year. Diamond Offshore has had similarly strong
earnings growth, with an average
price-to-earnings ratio (P/E)
of more than 30 during the past five years.
Noble has had the most measured results, posting good steady
growth, and should be able to regain its typical valuation of
about 17 times earnings. Even before the president's landmark
announcement today, Noble was worth $108 a share based on its
current earnings. That's +157% upside even before new business
juices earnings in the years to come.
Investors should and must go into the oil patch with their eyes
wide open. First, oil investors have to be comfortable with
volatility -- there isn't a "safe" place to stand anywhere in
the industry, which is subject to every kind of risk actuaries
calculate, and then some. That's not to say there aren't great
petroleum investments -- in fact, no sector has ever achieved a
better return on equity than the oil business -- but
understanding the risk is the first step toward understanding
whether any investment is suitable for your portfolio.
Second, even though the president reversed the moratorium
instantaneously, the returns are going to take time. The
intricate offshore survey work required to find suitable
exploration sites will take months and years.
For risk-tolerant investors looking to take advantage of Mr.
Obama's bold new energy direction, the offshore drilling space
is a great place to seek growth. The president has added
billions to this sector today. It's likely just the beginning.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing
P.S. Just to be clear, this is NOT About
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For example,
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