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Published: April 7,
2010
I sold my 1994 Mazda 626 -- affectionately
called "The Green Monster" -- to a neighbor about a year and a
half ago. The car had served me well and still had enough life
left to see his two teenagers through those dicey "new driver"
years.
In its place, I bought a used 2004 Honda Civic from a no-frills
used car wholesaler. When I walked into the office, the salesman
gruffly explained, "We don't do financing here. Cash only." That
suited me fine. I always pay cash for a car. In fact, I'd been
slowly saving up for this car since the day I bought the Mazda.
And of course, I'm already saving up for the next one.
But I don't just save for planned purchases. I try to save for
the unforeseen. At any given time, I have between one and two
years of living expenses in cash, CD's or money market accounts.
Sure, that money isn't giving me a maximum return. But sometimes
a good night of sleep is worth a little investment.
Going into the 2008 economic downturn, there were a number of
investors, companies, and even countries, having trouble getting
a little shuteye. But I suspect Chile was sleeping pretty
soundly. Chile was smart enough to tuck away approximately $19.5
billion from its copper revenues, fueled by abnormally high
commodity prices in 2006 and 2007. That's a little more than
10% of the country's annual gross domestic product.
Most developed countries will be paying off the debt for their
respective stimulus packages for years to come. Just as spending
stimulates an economy debt can dampen economic growth. But of
course Chile won't have to worry about the latter. Chile
basically paid cash. Although the massive earthquake has crimped
some of those plans, Chile is still far better off than most
emerging markets.
But there are a lot of reasons to like
Chile now -- and not just for the country's squirrel-like fiscal
conservatism. Chile's
central bank estimates that
inflation will be about 2.5% in 2010 -- comfortably below
its policy target of 3.0%. The bank also believes that Chile's
economy should grow between +4.5% and +5.5% this year. Most
developed countries would give their Posturepedic mattresses for
that kind of growth this year -- or any year for that matter.
Here in the United States, our current administration seems at
odds with our stock market. But Chile's stock market celebrated
its new administration, hitting a record high when billionaire
Sebastian Pinera was elected as president a few weeks ago.
Pinera is the third-richest Chilean and owns a football club, a
television station and an interest in LAN Airlines (NYSE: LFL).
Rightly or wrongly, the market believes he will usher in
business-friendly policies.
Another reason to like Chile now is for the low valuation of the
Chilean peso. The U.S. dollar has gained strength, weighing on
all world currencies. But the peso's sell-off was steeper than
most, pushed downward by an
accounting rule change to the country's pension funds. The
rule effected how the funds must measure their exposure to
foreign exchange rates. The change resulted in a stunning
sell-off of Chile's home currency as funds adjusted their
currency books.
Up until February's rule change, the peso was the third-best
performing emerging-market currency, gaining +21% in the last
year. And there's no reason to believe Chile's currency won't
continue to gain strength after this one time adjustment. But
until it does, the lower valuation makes stocks from Chile --
denominated in U.S. dollars -- just a little cheaper to buy.
And I like a bargain. (I didn't pay over the Kelley Blue Book
price for my Honda either.)
Amy Calistri
Editor
StreetAuthority's
Stock of the Month
The Daily Paycheck
P.S. -- There are a number of solid Chilean companies
that trade in the U.S. as American depository receipts (ADRs).
There are also a number of funds that specialize in the
country's top performing companies.
In the end, I chose a cost-effective, diversified,
exchange-traded fund that has been an outperformer.
Click here to learn the name of this security. |