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Inside the
Numbers: Small-Cap Stocks Poised to Pop
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Published: April 23, 2010
Fact: The S&P 500 is up
more than +68% since the
lows of March 2009. In
light of this bit of
information, it might be
tempting for investors
to become discouraged.
After all, how much
farther can the market
rise?
But looking at the past
will only get you so
far. What we're looking
for are tomorrow's
winners. And if we only
stick with the "big
dogs" on Wall Street,
then we'll miss out on
one of the market's most
potentially lucrative
spaces.
I'm talking, of course,
about
small-capitalization
stocks.
In general, the
market-cap range for
small-cap stocks is
considered to be between
$150 million and $2
billion. It's easy to
understand why some
might be leery about
these stocks -- a small,
upstart company doesn't
get the same amount of
press that, say,
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
or Wal-Mart (NYSE:
WMT) does. Fewer
analysts follow small
caps, and share prices
can also be more
volatile than larger
stocks -- but that isn't
always a bad thing.
Don't forget, Apple
was once a small
company, too. In fact,
it was co-founder Steve
Wozniak who built the
first Apple computer by
hand. And before
Wal-Mart became the
world's largest public
company by revenue,
founder Sam Walton's
first store was called
"Walton's Five and
Dime."
The point is, every
successful company has
humble beginnings. We
aren't quite looking for
companies in their
infancy, mind you. But
the earlier you can get
in as an investor, the
better. The goal of
today's Inside the
Numbers isn't
necessarily to find the
next Apple or Wal-Mart
(although that would be
nice), but rather to
find small, established,
financially healthy
companies that are
poised for substantial
growth in the years
ahead.
StreetAuthority's
research team got to
work looking for
small-cap winners using
the following criteria:
- Companies operating in the United States
- Market cap between $150 and $2 billion
- Price/Earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) ratio below 1.0
- Operating margins above 20%
- Profitable last quarter and on a trailing twelve-month
basis
It's important to note
that we narrowed our
search down to small
caps with PEGs below
1.0. This way, we're not
paying an excess premium
for growth -- we're
actually getting a
discount. Operating
margins and
profitability are
important, too: we want
small-cap companies that
have already staked
their claim and are just
beginning to enter their
prime.
Here's what we found:
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All of the stocks in the
table above make for
compelling candidates
worth investigating
further, but let's take
a look at a few of the
standouts:
-- Deckers Outdoor (Nasdaq:
DECK) makes active
wear and casual shoes.
Its flagship line, UGGS
Australia is responsible
for about 85% of
revenue. UGGS makes
comfortable, casual (and
pricey) sheepskin boots
that can be worn
throughout the year.
Chances are, you've seen
a few Hollywood starlets
sport the boots when
they're snapped by the
paparazzi -- or at the
very least your wife,
girlfriend or daughter
is familiar with the
brand.
There are a number of
factors that make
Deckers shares
interesting: The stock
trades for 15 times
earnings, compared with
an industry average of
29. Analysts expect the
company to grow earnings
more than +22% in the
next five years. The
stock could represent a
solid growth bargain.
-- True Religion (Nasdaq:
TRLG) is another
fashion brand. The
company makes premium
(read: expensive) jeans
and casual wear sold in
department stores and
boutiques. Retailers
were hit hard during the
downturn, but you
wouldn't know it by
looking at True
Religion's stock price,
which has almost doubled
in the past year.
Earnings have been solid
and analysts expect the
company to continue to
grow, yet investors are
only assigning it a
PEG
of just under 0.5.
-- Impax Labratories
(Nasdaq: IPXL) is a
generic drug maker
specializing in
controlled release
medicines. I've made the
bullish case for generic
drug makers before, and
it's the same for Impax:
An aging population,
plus more insured
people, plus the
impending patent cliff,
plus an emphasis on
controlling costs all
equal more money spent
on generic drugs.
Impax markets a generic
version of the attention
deficit disorder drug Adderall XR and, in
March, received approval
from the Food and Drug
Administration to market
its generic version of
the blockbuster drug
Flomax, which treats
enlarged prostates.
Aside from long-term
trends, the company has
another factor working
in its favor: size. It's
just large enough to
compete with the
name-brand drug giants,
but small enough to
where it's still
generating top-line
growth with each new
drug. And if that
weren't enough, Big
Pharma and large generic
competitors like Teva
Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:
TEVA) have been on a
buying spree lately.
With each new Impax
generic drug threatening
to dethrone a
blockbuster coming off
patent protection, the
company becomes more and
more enticing as a
takeover target.
Analyst estimates were
blown away when
fourth-quarter sales
grew by more than +400%
from a year earlier to
$176 million, while
earnings grew by more
than +300%. to $38
million. The company
reports 2010's
first-quarter earnings
on May 4th -- don't be
surprised to see more
big numbers.
-- Brad Briggs
Staff Writer
Street
Authority |
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