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Published: May 12, 2010
Right now, these nations are the lowest of
the low.
So low, they're referred to as the "PIIGS" (Portugal, Ireland,
Italy, Greece, Spain). Their equity markets are among the
worst-performing in the developed world this year.
But the good news is the downturn has opened up some
opportunities for bargain hunting -- and these bargains come
with high yields. Right now, these markets are offering some of
the lowest valuations and highest yields in the developed world.
Spain's Ibex 35
index is trading at 11 times earnings and carries an average
yield of 5%. Greek's
benchmark ATHEX Composite Index sports a
P/E of less than 10 and an average yield of about 3.5%,
while Italy's FTSE MIB is trading at 13 times earnings and also
yielding 3%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is priced at 17 times
earnings and offers an average yield of less than 2%.
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The Greek Problem
Of course, investors haven't shunned these markets without
cause. All of the PIIGS suffer from high unemployment, an
increasing number of non-performing bank loans, excessively high
debt-to-GDP and budget deficits, and little or no growth
expectations in the year ahead.
Greece is the weak link in the chain. Its unemployment and debt
levels are not much worse than the other PIIGS, or than the
United States for that matter, but it has the highest
combination of both debt-to-GDP (115.1%) and budget
deficit-to-GDP (13.6%) among these troubled countries.
Exacerbating the problem, Greece bears the lowest credit rating
in the Eurozone (the 16 countries using euro as their currency)
and was just downgraded.
If Greece defaults on its debt, a domino effect heightens the
credit risk throughout the region.
The Opportunity
A series of joint European Union/International Monetary Fund
rescue plans are in the works, but uncertainty over how
effective these rescue packages actually will be in staving off
a regional credit crisis is keeping investors on edge. But when
the bailout kicks in, and Greece manages to pay off an initial
$11.2 billion 10-year bond that comes due on May 19th, European
markets could get a further lift.
Now, as fears may have crescendoed, may be an opportune time to
search for undervalued stocks that have been unduly tarnished by
their association with PIIGS. The key is to find companies with
strong earnings prospects in spite of -- or even because of --
the PIIGS' problems.
I've done a bit of digging and found plenty of opportunities in
which income investors can take advantage.
Telecoms: Shares of Spain's telecom provider
Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) are down about -20% this year and now
yield close to 8.0%. The downward trend has tracked the
country's benchmark IBEX 35 Index, which counts the telecom as
its second-largest weighting.
But, in fact, the telecom derives 65% of its revenue outside of
Spain, including 40% from Latin American countries that are
unaffected by Europe's fiscal woes. A weakened euro has actually
proven to be a boon to the company's
cash flow.
Meanwhile, several other telecoms in the
region also have worldwide operations in Latin America and other
emerging markets that help insulate them from the troubles at
home (and they trade on the NYSE).
Energy Plays: Many energy companies enjoy the same
international revenue stream as telecom providers. In fact,
Spain's biggest oil company, Repsol YPF (NYSE: REP)
actually derives the bulk of its revenue from a wholly owned
subsidiary -- an Argentine oil and gas producer.
While REP's yield is roughly 6.0% -- not as high as some
European stocks I've uncovered -- it does represent a chance to
pick up a solid company that's being unfairly lumped in with the
rest of Spain.
Greek Shippers: It would be a mistake to dismiss
certain quality stocks just because they come from troubled
Greece. Greek-based shippers, in particular, are largely immune
to their country's woes thanks to their international
operations. Some have locked in steady cash flow from long-term
contracts with credit-worthy firms from around the world.
Others, which operate in the volatile "spot" market (in which
rates are determined in a daily basis) are more dependent on the
global economic recovery. But whether they operate in the spot
market or under long-term leases, their earnings are relatively
unaffected by what's happening at home.
Banks: For a more speculative play, banks in the
region could be worth a look.
Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), still carries a top notch
"A"
investment grade credit rating. Yet, as the largest
component of Spain's IBEX 35 Index, the bank has tracked the
index downward with abysmal year-to-date returns. Despite being
Spain's largest bank, about 35% of profits come from Latin
America, where it is also the largest bank by deposits.
Santander has paid dividends at an increasing rate since 1942
and now yields about 7.5%. The combination of reliable income
and growth potential make Santander a compelling value play at
today's prices.
Keep in mind that there's no guarantee the problems with the
PIIGS are in the past. The road still could be rocky. But with a
plan in place to help Greece and prevent the contagion from
spreading, now may be a good time to start looking for ways to
profit from a potential rebound.
-- Carla Pasternak
Editor
High-Yield Investing
High-Yield International |