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Published: May 19, 2010
I'm not a pack rat, but I saved the October
6, 2008, issue of The New Yorker magazine.
Only weeks earlier, the investment bank Lehman Brothers had
failed and the markets were spiraling downward. As always, the
magazine had its signature cartoons that perfectly captured the
times. In this issue there were a number that summed up the dour
sentiment of investors.
In one cartoon, a man walks into his bedroom to discover his
wife cheating on him. The caption reads: "Not on the mattress
where we keep all our money!"
During the market downturn, one enterprising company even
released a product called "The Mattress Wallet." Fashioned like
a miniature mattress, the wallet was marketed with
tongue-and-cheek campaigns, designed to connect with concerned
investors. In one ad, the "M.R.O.R" (mattress rate of return) of
0% was shown to be superior to the market's double-digit
decline.
As the market continued to slide, investors' money piled up on
the sidelines. And when the government announced it would
temporarily guarantee money market funds, the cash rolled in.
True, the yield on money market funds had fallen to less than 1%
by December 2008 -- only marginally better than a mattress.
But the trend to "take to the mattresses"
began to slowly unwind over the course of the market's
subsequent rally. The mattresses -- and the money market
accounts -- have been raided to fund better-yielding
investments.
In March 2010, U.S. investors withdrew $148.2 billion from money
market accounts -- much of it making its way into the bond
market.
The investment research company Morningstar reported that 75% of
the inflows into mutual funds in March went into bond funds.
High-yield bond sales in the first quarter of 2010 were $61
billion -- the highest since 1980, when the sales were first
tracked.
While this has been great news for existing bond holders, new
investors are having a tougher time finding good bond yields at
a reasonable price. This is especially true in the universe of
closed-end bond funds. Only a few months ago, investors could
buy into a closed-end bond fund for less than the
net asset value (NAV) of its portfolio. Now that the
"mattress rally" is in full swing, those bargains are far fewer
today.
In fact, a number of closed-end bond funds are trading at
premiums. Buying a fund at a premium isn't always a bad thing.
Some funds normally trade at a premium. And for that matter,
some funds normally trade at a discount. But we're starting to
see the prices of many closed-end funds trade above their
historic range -- at narrower discounts or higher premiums --
than they have during the past few years.
As an example, I've graphed the price premium/discount for the
Western Asset High Income Fund (NYSE: HIF) over the last
five years.
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This recent trend of rising premiums
introduces a little more price risk for closed-end bond funds.
And it's something we need to be aware of. For instance, should
these premiums start to erode back toward their normal range --
as they could if interest rates rise -- share prices could drop.
One of the things I always check when I'm researching a
closed-end fund for my
Daily Paycheck
newsletter is its historic premium/discount range. I highly
recommend
CEFConnect as a source for this data. It is a free website
that's easy to use.
I can say that there's one good thing from the market's recent
swoon: some of the premiums are beginning to close. While there
are still a number of funds trading above their net asset value,
I am keeping my eyes open for opportunities.
-- Amy Calistri
Editor
High-Yield Investing
High-Yield International |