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Published: May 19, 2010
When I first heard about this company, my
first thought was, "Well, it sure ain't sexy."
My second thought was: "It doesn’t have to be."
Today, I'd like to introduce you to a Chicago-based company in
the health-care arena that has, frankly, a remarkably boring
business. What's exciting, however, is the earnings potential
that this not-so-exciting company offers. This company has an
outstanding product and huge potential for growth.
The first thing investors need to understand is that the ongoing
health-care debate -- whatever its intentions -- has presented
information about the business of health-care that led the
public to draw questionable conclusions. The theme of the
health-care debate was that health care is expensive and that
the industry was making huge profits.
I'm not sure either of those points is accurate.
Now, arguing about it -- and I'd counter both of those
contentions -- isn't going to make anyone any money. What has
the potential to make us money, however, is this fact: It is
irrefutably true that health-care costs inevitably rise, and
that the sector as a whole grows faster than the rest of the
economy.
That's all we really know about health care. Neither is the end
of the world. If any other sector grows faster than the economy
as a whole we generally think of it as a good thing.
But I digress. Now, let's discuss profits for a sec.
Some people, yes, do extremely well in the health-care business.
Good for them -- I think they're paid well because they perform
well, and I have no problem with that. But the broader reality
is that, physician and executive salaries notwithstanding, the
margins for health-care providers is actually very small.
Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC), for example, which operates
about 50 hospitals, had revenue of $9.0 billion in 2009. It
turned a profit of $187 million, a razor-thin
margin of only 2.1%. Or take Community Health Systems
(NYSE: CYH), which owns or operates 122 hospitals. Its 2009
revenue was $12.1 billion; its profit came in at $243.2 million,
which works out to an even thinner margin.
To contrast that with other companies of similar size, consider
Cabot Oil and Gas Corp (NYSE: COG). It has roughly the
same
market value, but its 2009 net profit margin was 16.9%. Tech
companies and pharmaceutical companies see even higher margins
than that. The current state of the health-care business is like
that of groceries or agriculture: It's easy to generate a lot of
sales, but it's hard to turn much of a profit.
So, clearly a hospital would do anything it can to boost its
margins. Even "nonprofit" community or faith-based hospitals
aren't immune from making money -- that's how they pay for new
equipment, larger staff or other expansion.
That's where Accretive Health comes in. The company
offers a highly specialized system that enables hospitals and
physician offices to collect the money it is owed more
efficiently. It speeds up the "revenue cycle," the period of
time that elapses from the day medical service is provided until
the day the provider is paid.
Medical billing can rightly be counted among the most
complicated, convoluted and inefficient financial processes in
the business world. Insurance companies and self-insured health
plans have their reimbursement procedures, which are followed
most of the time. The Medicare program and other government
payers have their procedures, which are followed most of the
time. And then there are patients, who may or may not even
understand that they owe money in the first place.
Add into that morass the fact that services may be provided in
different places and billed by different providers. And let's
not forget that not only is every case a matter of life and
death, but it is a different matter of life and death -- and the
entire transaction must be kept confidential under federal laws.
The result is that some hospitals have only
a rough estimate of whether they are being paid what they are
actually owed. In some cases, hospitals may not even know what
they are truly owed in the first place. They just hope that
enough revenue trickles in to keep the lights on.
Accretive Health can do better than guess and hope. It uses a
powerful combination of people, processes and technology to
ensure that every step of the billing process is done accurately
and efficiently. The solution offered by Accretive Health
basically makes sure the hospital knows what it is owed and then
gets paid for it. Once the Accretive system is implemented,
hospitals and medical-service providers can expect to see a +4%
to +6% increase in their cash collections against the amount
they are contractually owed. To put it another way, Accretive
rakes in money that these health-care providers are leaving on
the table.
Accretive currently has 22 customers that represent a total of
59 hospitals, and its systems oversee the timely collection of
$13.6 billion in annual revenue for those clients. In 2009, its
services brought in $510.2 million and a net profit of $14.6
million. That's a margin I expect to see widen as the company
scales up.
And that's what's exciting here: The growth potential. Accretive
has increased revenues +358.8% since 2005. But it's sustainable.
In fact, there's no reason that such growth -- +46.4% on a
compound annual basis -- cannot continue indefinitely. After
all, the nation has 5,815 hospitals, of which Accretive has only
a 1.0%
market share. And there are hundreds of thousands of other
medical clinics where the nation's 815,000 doctors work that
also could benefit from Accretive's expertise.
A second point of excitement about this company is the driver
behind its "boring" business. It's not just profits, it's
compliance.
Health-care compliance is a booming industry. Not only has the
White House allocated $16 billion to switch the nation over the
digital medical records -- a system with which health-care
providers must comply -- but the administration also has just
given the health-care system a massive top-to-bottom rewrite.
Now, that might not change the way you receive your health care,
but that doesn't mean your health-care providers aren't going to
have to come into compliance with ObamaCare's myriad new rules.
And many of these rules change as they phase in over time,
meaning health-care billing systems will need massive annual
upgrades for years to come. Hospitals that don't keep up will
not only be out of compliance, they will risk a significant
erosion of profits.
Health care is an art, but it is first a business. If the back
office is not taken care of, then the ability to take care of
patients is compromised, sometimes severely. The recent changes
to the health-care system have some medical executives worried
about their ability to deal with the new rules and stay in
business. Adding +4% to +6% to cash collections likely will be
greatly appealing to thousands of hospitals, which will be all
too pleased to outsource this function if it means better
results.
That's great news for Accretive Health, which is expected to go
public any day. It's scheduled to trade on the New York Stock
Exchange under the ticker "AH." The $200 million offering is
being underwritten by Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan
and Morgan Stanley, among others.
No, it's not a very sexy business. Revenue cycle management and
the fine print of health-care billing is less than
scintillating. But Accretive's long-term potential looks very
alluring, and growth-oriented investors might want to consider
these shares for the long term.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing
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