|
Published: June 3, 2010
On April 26, the Dow hit a 52-week high of
11,258.01.
It lost -11.0% through June 2 and has since clawed back some
ground but remains -8.5% below its late-April high point. We
lived through some big swings in May.
Those big moves don't look like they will abate in the
near-term: The "Fear Index," a measure of investor sentiment
based on options trading, has risen to 30 today from 22 in late
April, signaling investors are increasingly edgy and uncertain.
The soft economic recovery at home and troubles in Greece and
Spain and elsewhere aren't helping anything, nor is the oil
spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In a climate like this, when the
market has the opportunity to cathartically dispel its anxiety,
it will generally take it -- and send prices plummeting.
But despite the challenging environment, a select basket of
stocks are still delivering tremendous returns.
Even on the market's worst days, some securities are actually
rising in price, sometimes substantially. Great stocks can see
their shares gain a lot of ground in a
bear market.
What's so special about these stocks?
What sets them apart?
Why, when strong companies like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
lose -7.8% and tech bellwethers like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
shed -14.9% of their value, can other companies move in the
other direction despite a prevailing negative sentiment on Wall
Street?
The answer lies in a major business advantage that is so strong,
so resilient, that it can defy market gravity. This advantage
might be a technological innovation or a new product or a
service that's making money hand over fist.
Whatever this exceptional advantage is, it tends to insulate the
company's value in bad times. And in good times it allows such
companies to do some real open-field running.
One example of such a company is Coinstar (Nasdaq: CSTR). This
innovative firm began putting change-counting machines into
grocery stores a number of years ago. Customers bring in a jar
of change and Coinstar's machines count it -- collecting a steep
fee in the process. The machines then print a receipt that can
be redeemed for cash at the store's customer-service counter.
Good
business model. Popular service.
Then Coinstar got really innovative. It partnered with major
retailers to allow customers to have their change counted with
no fee if they would allow their money to be put on a gift card.
Gift cards are a gold mine -- they're basically short-term loans
that don't pay interest, allowing all those unused balances to
generate a return for the company. All the customer gets --
aside from his change counted -- is convenience.
Then came the coup de grace.
Coinstar got its hands on a serious game-changing business
called RedBox. These kiosks, now nearly ubiquitous, allow
customers to rent DVDs for a dollar a day. It's all billed to a
customer's credit card and is bar-code based, so a customer can
rent from a machine at, say, the grocery store and return it to
any other convenient location. These remarkable machines are
extremely handy and very, very popular. There's always a line at
the one sitting outside the grocery store near my house.
Here's the kicker: As the Dow fell as much as -11% from April 26
to the present, shares of Coinstar -- an innovative,
game-changing company -- jumped +50.6% through Wednesday's
close. The chart below proves the adage "a picture is worth a
thousand words."
|
 |
So that's how the company has performed in tough times. In
better markets, though, Coinstar screams like a Formula One car
down a clear stretch of track. For the past year, it's up
+87.1%. For the past five years, Coinstar has gained +186%
(versus a gain of just +10.9% for the Nasdaq). Since its debut
in 1997, the company has grown in value by +439%, about eight
times its
benchmark.
So let me ask: Would you rather invest in revved up companies
like Coinstar or would you prefer the lackluster results of the
overall market?
Well, I sure know which one I'd pick. I know which of those two
choices has the power to turn me into a multi-millionaire.
And the fact is that these companies aren't as rare as you might
think. In the month that the market took its -11% dive, I found
500 stocks in the United States that gained more than +10%.
How many of these did you have in your portfolio?
I'll tell you about another that's in mine: This small biotech
company is going to turn the plastics business on its head. You
haven't heard about this company on the evening news yet or read
about it in the paper, but you can bet your boots you will. In
the meantime, the people who are in the know are holding their
shares dear. They didn't lose an inch of ground in the past
month of bloodletting.
Like Coinstar, this company's business advantage is so
enormously compelling that it puts a deep moat around the
shares.
You see, plastics are derived from petroleum. They use oil. And
we use a fantastic amount of plastics. I mean, when was the last
time you bought anything that didn't have plastic in it or on
it? Maybe an apple? Heck, even it comes in a plastic bag!
But that's changing.
A smart startup has special bacteria that it can introduce into
corn. These little bugs eat the corn and excrete a substance
known as PHA.
It looks like plastic.
It's moldable like plastic.
It's resistant to heat and water just like plastic.
But it's not plastic. It's a totally renewable source of a
material that could vastly change how we manufacture the things
we use in our daily lives. In fact, Paper Mate is introducing a
pen made from this plastic.
It's called the Paper Mate Biodegradable.
That's right. This plastic is totally natural. It doesn't harm
the environment at all. Throw it into your compost pile and it
will break down just like lawn clippings, a cigar butt or an
orange peel. It is a totally "green" material -- a useful
product that eco-friendly consumers are going to eat up.
Shares of this little known company have soared +28.9% in the
past month. In the past 12 months they've returned a remarkable
+121.7%.
Another company that defied the market's gravity was a teeny
little British oil exploration firm that I bet not even one
investor in 10,000 had ever heard of. I discovered this company
as I watched a diplomatic flap unfold after this company and a
couple of other British oil companies started drilling some very
promising wells off the shores of The Falkland Islands.
I quickly snapped up shares of Rockhopper Exploration (London:
RKH), which thumbed their nose at a falling market and
skyrocketed +287.4% in about 90 days! Falling market or not,
locating a major undersea field that could contain billions of
barrels of oil is going to add to a stock's price. And it did.
I'll be including the name of the plastics company I mentioned
earlier, along with nearly a dozen other potential game-changers
like it, in my new
Fast-Track Millionaire newsletter, scheduled
for a mid-month launch. This unique publication will focus
exclusively on the stocks that have the potential to explode.
Want a sneak peak? Please join me at a free webinar on June 15,
where I'll discuss four companies with game-changing businesses
that could well be the next Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google
(Nasdaq: GOOG).
Click here to sign up.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing
|