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Published: June 4, 2010
Rome wasn't built in a day. That refrain is
often employed when management embarks on a
turnaround. The
problem, though, is that investors may begin to lose their
confidence. If they're forced to wait too long, they may lose
hope, sell out and force the shares down.
Tech impresario Michael Dell knows that all too well. He has
worked for half a decade to turn things around at Dell (Nasdaq:
DELL), and only now has the results to show for it. This
tech giant is boosting sales, churning out lots of cash, just
announced an intriguing new product and is likely to keep making
deals to help boost the top and bottom lines.
Dell's operational rebound is not proceeding at a breakneck
pace. Projected fiscal 2010 sales, while up more than +15% over
fiscal 2009, only match the sales brought in the prior year,
before the global economy cooled. Analysts expect sales to rise
just +5% in fiscal 2011 to around $65 billion. But thanks to
very tight cost controls, operating margins are expanding, so
EPS is rising closer to a +15% to +20% pace. According to
analysts, Dell earned about $1.00 a share last year, should earn
around $1.25 this year and approach $1.50 in EPS next year. Now
that's the turnaround investors have been waiting for.
Yet shares have recently hit a rough patch. Gross margins, which
sequentially rose 200 basis points to 17.6% in the most recent
quarter, were slightly lower than the 17.7% forecast.
Nevertheless, even moderate sales growth could get the gross
margin rate back up to 18% later this year and into fiscal 2011.
More importantly, operating margins should move back up above 6%
next year for the first time since fiscal 2006.
Dell can lean on several factors that could boost sales and
profits even higher than the cited forecasts. For starters, the
company is sitting on more than $11 billion in gross cash, and
management has made it clear that checkbook diplomacy will be
part of its growth strategy. (Net cash is closer to $7 billion).
A recent deal to acquire Perot Systems is a fine example.
Perot's service-oriented focus carries higher gross margins than
Dell's traditional hardware-focused model. Future deals should
also focus on margin-boosting opportunities. All that cash is
also being used to buy back stock, and with the recent slump in
shares, the buyback plan could accelerate from current levels.
As a wildcard, Dell may get back into the game as a purveyor of
hot consumer products. The company has developed a competitor to
Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPad, called "the Streak." The
product, which has just been released in the United Kingdom, is
a bit smaller than the iPad, but can also double as a smartphone.
The Streak uses Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android software,
which should eventually have enough applications to rival the
iPad. The product is slated to go on sale in the United States
sometime in July. If the product receives strong reviews and
industry buzz, then shares might finally start to move back into
favor.
Action to Take ------> Even
without this near-term booster, investors should still note the
long-term turnaround underway at Dell. A combination of a
falling stock price and rising estimates has turned this into a
real value play. Shares trade for about 13.5 times this year's
profits and 10.5 times next year's profits. Back out that hefty
cash balance, and the fiscal 2011
P/E ratio is even less.
Whether it's a reduced share count, growth-boosting acquisitions
or a hot new product, Michael Dell aims to see this turnaround
through to the end. Although it has been long in coming,
investor patience may soon pay off.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
StreetAuthority |
