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Published: June 14, 2010
Warren Buffett seemed to take it on the
chin last week.
In fact, he's been hammered for a couple of months now.
First came the annual Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B)
shareholders meeting, the annual Woodstock for Capitalists and
Buffett love fest held each May, where the Oracle of Omaha was
upstaged by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). Berkshire lent
Goldman $5 billion in 2008. The storied Wall Street firm, with
which Buffett has had a long love affair, has come under
scrutiny by the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its part in
creating an ill-fated mortgage deal. Questions about it
dominated the daylong shareholders meeting.
The latest indignity was his appearance before Congress last
week -- under subpoena, no less -- where he was compelled to
answer questions about his stake in Moody's Investor Service
(NYSE: MCO). The company, which Buffett said he asserted no
control over (true) is under scrutiny for its role in favorably
rating the subprime mortgages that imploded.
Some said Buffett, who said Moody's did what everyone else did
and missed the subprime dangers, as did he, came off as
detached, uninformed and talking out of both sides of his mouth.
This performance seemed to stand in stark distinction to an
earlier appearance on the Hill. Then, in 1991, Buffett, as
chairman of Salomon Brothers, a post he briefly held, defended
it from an inquiry into a rogue trader's handling of U.S.
Treasuries. "Lose money for the firm, and I will be
understanding," Buffett forcefully and memorably said. "Lose a
shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless."
What has happened to Warren Buffett? Is it time to put him out
to pasture?
Hardly.
Anyone who knows the story of Warren Buffett knows that when he
digs in his heels, he defies short-term conventional wisdom and
looks like a genius in the end.
Consider his lecture at Sun Valley, Idaho, in 1999. This annual
gathering, orchestrated by Allen & Co., a boutique
investment bank, brings together some of the best
technology, media and communications minds in the world. In
1999, as the tech bubble was ballooning, audience members were
flying high, and Buffett was a keynote speaker.
Buffett told them they were nuts. He said the "New
Economy" idea was foolish. His implications, though rather
more pleasantly phrased, indicated to many of those in
attendance that their business models were short-sighted -- and
doomed.
Buffett lost a few friends and a lot of public standing.
Everyone thought he was crazy for sitting out the tech bubble.
He looked nuts: The market continued to soar, and the tech-heavy
Nasdaq reached an apex of 5,048 in March 2000.
Then it stopped. And fell like a stone. In
fact, the market lost $5 trillion in market cap from 2000 to
2002. The Nasdaq lost -53.3% as Berkshire shares tacked on
+29.7%.
Buffett was right, and ended up richer.
Or consider a Wall Street scandal that almost no one remembers,
the fascinating story of Tino De Angelis. His Allied Crude
Vegetable Oil Co. had a neat little scheme going. Ships would
come into port loaded mostly with water with only a little oil
on top, and inspectors would certify the
load, which was then put into storage tanks. De Angelis used
the phantom oil as
collateral for loans. Occasionally,
inspectors would come out for a look to certify that the
collateral was in place. Tino would show them a tank and they'd
fill out their forms, then he'd take them to lunch while he
pumped the oil into another tank, which they would then certify
as being full, too. He hoodwinked them for quite some time.
The "them?"
It was none other than American Express (NYSE: AXP). And
its losses from the "salad oil" scandal caused the stock to lose
half its value. A cagey investor from Omaha took notice and
loaded up on AXP stock. He promptly said that the matter would
be taken care of no matter what it cost so as not to harm the
value of the storied American Express name. The year was 1963,
the scandal was overshadowed by the Kennedy assassination, and
the investor, of course, was none other than Buffett. His
current 151 million-share stake in AmEx cost $1.3 billion but is
now worth $6.1 billion, a gain of +370% as of Dec. 31, 2009. The
dividend alone is $111.6 million a year.
Buffett was right, and ended up richer.
Now, what's going to happen this time?
History repeats itself, but not exactly. It's tough to make
Buffett materially richer, but the odds are that the performance
he gave Congress was exactly what he wanted to give, for his
reasons. And this reasoning that has guided Buffett for the past
40 years has served him very well and made a lot of his
investors phenomenally wealthy.
As it stands, Berkshire is a steal at current levels (around $74
a share in Friday trading), with room to run easily back to its
52-week high of $83.57 and beyond. That would represent a +18%
gain that outpaces even the best performer on the Dow Jones
Industrial Average [The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA)].
Warren Buffett has not lost his mojo. He still has his touch.
Just as he pays no attention to the short-term performance of
his companies and focuses instead on their long-term domination,
so too will he ignore the interim bleating in the blogosphere
and maiming in the mainstream media.
The outcome, if history is any guide, will be the same.
Buffett will be right, and he'll grow richer.
The lesson of this is that it's important to see what the market
fails to recognize. And while Warren Buffett made money over the
long run by recognizing value, today's investors can put
themselves in a position to capture standout returns by focusing
on growth. There are dozens of opportunities to locate companies
that have an edge that the market has not yet discovered. When
Wall Street finally stumbles upon these winners, they can surge
overnight. These fast-track picks make Buffett's long-term gain
look puny by comparison.
That's the focus of my new
Fast-Track Millionaire. And I'm offering a sneak peak on
June 15.
Click here to learn how you can join an exclusive
webcast detailing a handful of these picks and showing you how
these stocks can put your portfolio on the fast track.
-- Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist
Government-Driven Investing
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