These days, analyst
research doesn't
hold the same
respect with
clients, and without
the IPO activity to
at least provide
some value, the
relationship between
sell-side
departments (analyst
teams at investment
banks) and buy-side
firms (the hedge
funds and mutual
funds that serve as
clients) is even
further frayed.
The timing is
unfortunate. A
number of investment
banks have just been
getting back on
their feet in recent
quarters, and
analysts will likely
need to start
lowering their
profit forecasts if
the IPO market
remains depressed.
For the big banks
like
Goldman
Sachs (NYSE: GS)
or
JP Morgan
(NYSE: JPM),
investment banking
fees and research
trading commissions
are only a small
part of their
overall business.
But for smaller
firms such as
Jefferies (NYSE: JEF),
Stifel Financial
(NYSE: SF),
Oppenheimer (NYSE:
OPY) and
Raymond James (NYSE:
RJF), investors
may need to brace
for
weaker-than-expected
results.
Good News for
Buyers
Companies that are
pushed away from the
IPO gate can stay
away only so long.
Many times they are
funded with the
notion that their
original investors
will soon be able to
recoup their
investment. And if
these backers, such
as
venture capital
(VCs) firms, are on
the hook to keep
these companies
going, they may look
for alternatives.
When this has
happened in the
past, these VCs have
reached out to
private equity firms
like
KKR
Financial (NYSE: KFN)
or the
Blackstone
Group (NYSE: BX)
to take the private
companies off of
their hands.
But if these stalled
IPOs are in the
high-tech field,
then the cash-rich
large public players
also field phone
calls. In past
cycles, when the IPO
market was closed,
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq:
CSCO),
Oracle
(Nasdaq: ORCL),
Intel (Nasdaq:
INTC),
EMC
(NYSE: EMC) and
others have pounced
on small private
names, often at
fire-sale prices.
Action to Take
--> There
is so much to like
about tech stocks
like these right
now. Many have very
strong balance
sheets, which can be
used to buy back
stock while the
market is slumping,
or used to acquire
these almost-IPOs.
Moreover, tech
spending is now
solidly rising, if
recent earnings
reports are any
indication. I am a
big fan of
Dell
Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL),
thanks to its
balance sheet-led
downside support,
but all of the
above-noted tech
names hold appeal.
Conversely, look to
trim positions in
investment banks if
the IPO market
doesn't re-open
before the next
earnings season
in July.