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Published: June 23, 2010
Nestled in the heartland of America,
Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) is an icon of American
manufacturing done right. And now that it's being powered by new
technology, emerging markets growth and new regulatory
standards, the company is ready to book serious profits.
Founded almost 100 years ago and publicly traded since 1957,
Cummins dominates the diesel truck engine market in the United
States and is strongly increasing its international presence.
The high quality, efficiency and durability of the engines
Cummins designs and builds are the foundation of the company's
leadership. And its strong and disciplined cost controls,
inventory, and receivable management are vastly superior to that
of its competition.
Those attributes translate into higher profitability and cash
generation, and in turn, allow for a light debt burden, high
liquidity and a bulletproof balance sheet.
Cummins' superior quality and cost advantage are what's made it
the leading designer and manufacturer of diesel engines in the
United States. It's also quickly become the largest producer of
natural gas and hybrid bus engines in the country. And both
segments are due for very strong increases in sales.
Cummins was the first to comply with a very tough new
environmental standard in 2007, and in 2008, it pushed
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) out of the on-highway heavy
engines business. Daimler AG (OTC: DDAIF) also ceased
sourcing engines internally and switched to Cummins.
The company already is consistently beating sales and earnings
estimates, and it's showing no signs of slowing down. Cummins'
first-quarter net income more than doubled Wall Street
estimates, rising to $149 million, or 75 cents a share, from $7
million, or 4 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. And we can
expect a similar outperformance as we approach its
second-quarter earnings report, to be released on July 27.
This is not only because the company boasts disciplined and
consistent management, but also because U.S. and global trends
are providing a unique profit opportunity.
While Asia and Latin America - most notably Brazil - are now
being forced to curtail economic growth to keep from spurring
inflation, the U.S. recovery continues to gain momentum. And,
very importantly, infrastructure spending remains a strong
pillar of global growth.
As a result, there currently is very high demand for new trucks
all over the globe. That's why Cummins' international sales have
grown to 60% of total sales from 40% just a couple of years ago.
Who says that America cannot compete in manufacturing around the
world?
In the United States, the trucking industry has been caught with
an antiquated fleet that is in desperate need of replacement.
The average age of the U.S. truck fleet is the oldest it has
been in decades, and old trucks mean higher maintenance costs.
As the U.S. recovery gathers steam, trucking companies are
increasingly taking advantage of low interest rates to replace
their trucks and reduce operating expenses. And the federal
government has ambitious plans to increase mileage standards for
big rigs, which will help accelerate the replacement of old
trucks.
In addition, higher gasoline prices have accelerated the
migration to diesel engines. Cities, states and federal
governments are moving towards more efficient vehicles and thus
increasing their purchases of natural gas and hybrid engines.
The United States is riddled with large pockets of natural gas
and prices are very low right now, which makes shifting to
natural gas-powered bus fleets a no-brainer.
Cummins is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this with
new, undisclosed designs aimed at reducing pollution and
boosting mileage. It might not be as sexy as Apple Inc.'s
(NYSE: AAPL) iPhone, but it's much more difficult to
leapfrog Cummins' products and the profits it's generating will
soon be just as good.
This trend is increasingly dominant in Europe and Asia as well,
as countries around the world tighten emissions and mileage
standards further.
Cummins should continue to grow strongly in its power-generation
business, because its products enjoy advantages in standby,
mobile and distributed power generation. The inadequacies of the
electricity-distribution grids in many emerging markets will
provide fuel for strong future growth in this category.
So, continued emerging market growth, an ingrained recovery in
the United States, and tighter mileage and pollution standards
will continue to power unusually strong profits for Cummins over
the immediate-long-term future.
Cummins stock is still discounting strong growth, but it's
trading at all time highs and testing a strong resistance. And
if the company's second-quarter earnings blow through analysts'
estimates the way first quarter earnings did, its stock could go
substantially higher. So we need to enter the stock in a
staggered fashion.
We need to buy some now and buy some more after the earnings
report, whichever way it goes. A solid strategy is to use
dollar-cost averaging, which means buying the same dollar amount
of the stock in periodic purchases over time. This way, when the
stock rallies we get fewer shares, and when the stock is cheap
we get more.
-- Horacio Marquez
Associate Editor
Money Morning
Note: This article originally appeared on
Money Morning |