But there's a real
danger that even if
Germany and France
post slow or
moderate economic
growth, their
neighbors on the
periphery of Europe
will contract and
take the entire
European Union down
with them. Grumbling
from the German or
French electorate is
likely to only grow
louder. The next
time you hear rumors
that member states
may move away from
the euro, U.S.
stocks will again
take a hit.
Investors don't like
the uncertainty that
might create.
Slow progress
The response to the
European crisis has
not been uniform.
The United Kingdom
has announced a
massive austerity
plan that runs the
risk of forcing the
economy into an even
deeper hole as taxes
sharply rise and
spending is sharply
reduced. The PIIGS
have no choice but
to be similarly
austere, inviting
those same concerns.
France and Germany,
on the other hand,
are moving in a more
restrained fashion.
Germany just raised
taxes by 11 billion
euros, while France
has enacted roughly
five billion euros
worth of tax hikes.
France and Germany
likely wish they
were islands unto
themselves right
about now. But they
know that a divorce
from their neighbors
would cause more
harm than good.
Action to Take
--> The
current crisis
spells real
opportunity for
companies based in
these stronger
countries. A weaker
currency boosts
export prospects and
gives them a chance
to make a major push
into faster-growing
markets like Brazil,
Turkey and China.
For example,
U.K.-based
Diageo
(NYSE: DEO),
which makes Captain
Morgan, Smirnoff,
Johnny Walker and
other spirits, notes
that export sales
are faring well.
Shares are roughly
-30% lower than
before the 2008
economic crisis
began and trade for
about 13 times
projected 2011
profits.
Investors may also
want to dig deeper
into
Luxembourg-based
Arcelor Mittal
(NYSE: MT), the
world's largest
steel maker. Shares
have lost a third of
their value on fears
of slumping demand,
but the company is
not seeing much of a
slowdown and is
well-positioned to
capitalize on rising
steel demand in
Brazil, South Asia
and the United
States.
You should also
check out
Swiss-based
ABB
(NYSE: ABB), the
General Electric
(NYSE: GE) of
Europe. Goldman
Sachs points out
that shares of ABB
start to garner a
higher
P/E multiple
whenever orders
exceed shipment
(which is known as a
book-to-bill ratio
greater than 1.0).
But it notes that
"the multiple has
yet to respond."
ABB's sales are
expected to
moderately decline
this year but grow
by +6% to +8% next
year, simply based
on the recently
building
backlog. If the
weaker euro helps
boost
competitiveness in
other parts of the
world, then growth
will be even more
robust.