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Published: June 28, 2010
It just might be one of the biggest,
far-reaching pacts of the decade -- and I'm betting you've never
heard of it. It will govern business in more than a dozen
countries, influence the shopping patterns of 1.9 billion
consumers and facilitate trade in a region whose annual
GDP now stands at $6.6 trillion and rising.
I'm talking about the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA).
The historic agreement took effect January 1st of this year with
barely a word from the financial media (at least in this
hemisphere). Undersea earthquakes also pass without notice, but
the tsunamis that follow are felt around the world. I think
that's what's been unleashed here: a massive wave of economic
activity washing over the Pacific Rim.
We all know that China has an insatiable appetite for just about
every raw material you can imagine. Each year the country
devours mountains of foreign coal, oil, copper and iron ore
(among others) to feed the its economic engine. Those supplies
often come from distant lands like Brazil, but many orders are
increasingly placed with nearby neighbors.
Palm oil is coming in from Indonesia, rubber from Malaysia and
petrochemicals from Singapore. China's imports aren't merely
limited to natural resources, either -- manufacturers in the
Philippines are busy sending over semiconductors and Taiwan has
seen surging demand for products like computers and mobile
phones.
Annual trade between China and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) had already mushroomed from $40 billion in
2000 to $193 billion last year. But the new agreement (the
world's largest in terms of population coverage) has removed old
fetters and paved the way for almost unrestricted trade.
Tariffs on 90% of ASEAN goods entering the
Chinese marketplace have been virtually eliminated, with rates
slashed from 9.8% to 0.1%. This duty-free shopping will make it
easier than ever for Asian producers to get their products in
the hands of Chinese consumers. Likewise, Chinese goods being
shipped out will see favorable treatment abroad.
It's only been a few months, but the early results are nothing
short of extraordinary.
Taiwan enjoyed its strongest export gains in 30 years in
January, with sales to China surging +188%. By comparison,
exports to the United States grew +14%. And as I told my
ETF Authority readers in April, Indonesia is also on the
fast track after China gobbled up $3.1 billion worth of
Indonesian goods last quarter, a triple-digit increase.
China has leapfrogged the United States to become ASEAN's third
largest trading partner. At the current trajectory, it's only a
matter of time before it becomes the biggest.
That growth will open up a world of opportunities for a wide
range of companies. As was the case with the North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA), some industries will struggle to remain
competitive in the new playing field, but others will feast. The
agreement will eliminate barriers, promote efficiency, create
jobs and bolster the spending power of Asian consumers.
Some of the robust percentage gains can be attributed to the
fact that we were gripped by recession this time last year. But
the latest tabulations from China's General Administration of
Customs (GAC) show that trading activity remains scorching hot.
In May, China reported a +48.3% jump in imports and a +48.5%
surge in exports, transactions valued at $244 billion dollars.
By comparison, the total from May 2008 maxed out at $221
billion. In other words, Asian trade isn't just recovering -- it
has blasted past pre-recession levels. And that's why I continue
to steer my readers toward the SPDR Emerging Southeast Asia
(NYSE: GMF)
exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Launched in 2007, GMF is designed to mirror the performance of
the S&P Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Index. The portfolio
covers nearly all of the nations that stand to benefit from
CAFTA. About one-third of the fund's assets are invested in
China, while the remainder is judiciously spread among Taiwan,
Malaysia, Indonesia and several others.
The fund isn't specifically geared toward trade per se, but the
bulk of the portfolio is invested in sectors like information
technology, materials and consumer discretionary that will enjoy
a stiff tailwind from the relaxed rules. Top holdings include
familiar names like PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) and Taiwan
Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM). Investors will also have exposure
to companies like Hon Hai Precision, the world's largest
electronics parts maker -- which just posted a +50% jump in
first quarter sales.
As you might expect, GMF was hit hard during the downturn of
2008, but the fund posted a powerful gain of +74% in last year's
rally. Its annualized returns during the past three years
outpace the
benchmark MSCI
EAFE Index by more than 1,500 basis points a year.
Action to Take --> GMF has
outscored 85% of all funds in the Asia/Pacific category since
2007. And with CAFTA now almost fully implemented, the road
ahead looks even brighter. That promising outlook, combined with
low fees, stellar tax efficiency, reasonable valuations and
top-tier risk/adjusted performance all play a part my giving the
fund a top score for my
ETF Authority readers.
-- Nathan Slaughter
Editor
StreetAuthority Market Advisor
The ETF
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