It's easy to see the
appeal of this
business: In
general, the payback
period for saving
electricity is much
quicker than for
investing in
alternative energy
generation.
Typically, the costs
associated with
reducing electricity
usage are recovered
within three to four
years; whereas the
payback period for a
solar or wind plant
is more typically
seven to eight
years.
JCI's battery
division also has a
green sheen. Its new
lithium ion
batteries (developed
in conjunction with
partner Saft) should
become a key
supplier to the
nascent electric and
hybrid vehicle
markets.
Of course, the
company still makes
money on legacy
products. For
example, JCI's
traditional car
battery business
controls roughly
one-third of the
market for
after-market
batteries. That's a
nice recurring
business, as a
typical car will go
through at least
three to four
batteries in its
lifetime. Johnson
also makes a range
of other auto
interior products
such as seats, door
panels and
electronics.
But the most
important thing to
know about Johnson
Controls can't be
found among its
customers or its
products. Instead,
it is the company's
cost structure,
which has shed so
much weight in
recent years that
the company is
considered to be the
leanest in its
field. During the
past two years, the
company has closed
31 plants, pared its
workforce by about
-12% and can still
make a profit, even
if the economy
slumps again.
Analysts think JCI
can generate roughly
$34 billion in sales
this year, up a
solid +19% from last
year, but still
about $4 billion
below fiscal
(September) 2008
levels. Once the
economy gets back on
its feet and sales
move back toward the
$40 billion mark,
those cots cuts
should yield record
profits.
Action to Take
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Johnson Controls has
typically traded for
between seven and 20
times forward
earnings. Right now,
the forward multiple
is much closer to
the low end of that
range. Assuming
shares trade up to
the mid-point of
that range, or 13
times projected
earnings, and if the
fiscal 2011
EPS forecast of
$2.42 is to be
believed, then
shares should rise
back up to the upper
$30s. That's +50%
above current
levels. When sales
claw back to the $40
billion mark,
perhaps in fiscal
2012, per share
profits should
exceed $3. Not bad
for a $26 stock.