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Published: July 12, 2010
Long before the days of growth stocks,
investors used to search for value in stocks that were trading
for less than the net assets on their balance sheets. It was a
tried-and-true formula for protecting your downside while
searching for upside.
The stock market's original gurus - Columbia Business School's
Benjamin Graham and David Dodd - laid out a pretty simple
premise in their 1934 book Security Analysis: Since we
have no crystal ball that tells us where a business is headed,
we can only place a value on things we already know. And we know
that if a company chose to shut down tomorrow, sell off its
assets, pay off its debts, and turn it all into cash, we can get
a sense of what value exists. This is a company's tangible
book value, which excludes non-cash
balance sheet items such as goodwill and amortization. And
as those esteemed authors noted, if the stock market's value of
a company (known as market capitalization) is less than that
tangible book value, then you've got a potential bargain.
In theory, a stock's value should never
fall below tangible book value, because investors should bid
shares back up right to the point where those two values are
equal -- also known as "trading at book." But the market is
never that efficient. Sometimes, a stock will fall below its
intrinsic worth and trade well below tangible book value. In
bull markets, you can always find a few dozen stocks trading
below book. And in markets like the current one, you'll find
hundreds.
In some instances, investors are right to ignore stated book
value. For example, if a company is losing money, cash will
decline and so will book value. Alcoa (NYSE: AA), which
kicks off
earnings season every quarter, is a fine example. Tangible
book value has fallen from $12.76 per share at the end of 2007
to a recent $7.40. Shares fell down to just $5 at the height of
the economic crisis, because investors knew that tangible book
value would keep shrinking in the face of open-ended losses.
In other instances, a company will carry assets at their cost,
but those assets may no longer be worth as much. For example,
oil refiners Valero (NYSE: VLO) and Western Refining
(NYSE: WNR) spent billions of dollars to build massive
facilities to produce gasoline and diesel fuel. But the industry
is awash in too much capacity, and neither firm would get all of
its money back if they wanted to sell some of those refineries.
In some extreme instances, these stocks not only trade below
book value, but below cash levels. Telecom equipment maker
Sycamore Networks (Nasdaq: SCMR) is valued by investors at
roughly $500 million. Yet Sycamore has roughly $635 million in
short and long-term investments.
Presumably, a rival could come along and pay a 25% premium to
the company's current
market value and get the whole business for free by sucking
out that cash. This is a clear instance where Graham & Dodd
would be scratching their heads.
I ran a screen and found hundreds of stocks trading below book.
I've greatly condensed that list for you by, among other things,
placing a $500 million minimum on market value. I've also
eliminated a number of financial services firms due to anomalies
associated with the stated values of their assets and
liabilities (though we retained some financial names on the list
that do represent clearly-valued balance sheet items).
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Ingram Micro
(NYSE: IM)
As the table shows,
some stocks trade
for sharp discounts
to book value. And
many of these stocks
have likely found a
floor, even if the
rest of the market
slumps further. For
example, shares of
Ingram Micro, the
world's largest
distributor of
office equipment and
electronics, have
fallen to just 85%
of tangible book
value on fears that
European sales will
slump in coming
quarters.
But value investors
should be ready to
pounce. That's
because tangible
book value has risen
from $10.59 in 2004
to a recent $18.32.
Almost all of that
gain is attributable
to a rising cash
hoard, which now
approaches $1
billion. And that
figure is likely to
keep rising, as
Ingram Micro should
remain nicely
profitable, even if
European sales
slump. Ingram Micro
has never lost money
(excluding a
one-time charge in
2009) in its
history.
Dillard's (NYSE:
DDS)
There are two things
you need to know
about this
long-standing
department store
chain. Management
has a very spotty
track record in
terms of sales and
profit growth, and
the company is
sitting on a gold
mine in terms of
real estate. The
company's portfolio
of stores is likely
worth at least the
$3 billion that it
is being valued on
its books. Yet the
whole company is
valued at less than
half of that figure.
Dillard's results
are sharply improved
this year, as
earnings per share
should more than
double. But the
country is still
awash in too much
retail space. So
Dillard's would need
to wait before
trying to raise cash
by selling any
stores. But if it
comes to that,
investors should
note that many of
Dillard's stores are
situated in prime
locations.
Meanwhile, the whole
company is valued at
just 69% of tangible
book value.
Royal Caribbean
(NYSE: RCL)
A cruise ship just
isn't worth as much
anymore. They cost
oodles of money to
build, and are
currently being
packed in with
discount-seeking
bargain hunters.
Many ships are
barely generating
more profits than
the loans taken out
to pay for them.
Part of the problem
stems from a glut of
cruise ships that
were built while the
economy was humming.
It takes several
years to build a
ship, so new ones
kept coming, even as
the economy slumped.
But over time,
demand for cruises
should catch up with
supply, and the
value of the cruise
ships built by Royal
Caribbean will start
to rise back to the
value of their
construction costs.
Shares would need to
rise by 21% just to
get back up to
tangible book value.
Action to Take -->
These value
situations require
patience. Indeed,
Graham & Dodd
preached "Buy and
Hold." In the
meantime, these
stocks are likely to
fall by less than
other stocks that
trade far above book
value. So you get
(eventual) reward
without too much
risk. Of these
companies profiled,
Ingram Micro is the
most likely to see
tangible book value
keep rising, while
investors in Royal
Caribbean and
Dillard's will need
to wait for the
market for their
assets (ships and
real estate,
respectively) to
become better
appreciated..
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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