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Published: August 2, 2010
Call it the winner's curse. When companies
grow at fast clip for a long time, investors come to assume
they'll never slow. Of course, all companies eventually grow too
large to keep posting explosive growth. Some settle into a more
moderate -- but still respectable -- plane of growth, while
others truly hit a wall.
We went trolling for these high growers, focusing on the
technology field, to see if there is any life left in these
former highflyers. We specifically screened for companies that
have boosted sales at an average annual pace of +25% or more
during the past five years, eliminating any companies valued
less than $200 million.
We culled the list further to focus solely on companies that
have seen their stocks fall to a point lower than they were a
year ago. This tells us that high-growth investors no longer
love these names. But do they appeal to investors seeking
moderate growth and reasonable valuations? Let's find out.
Research in Motion gets no respect
No major tech stock has gone more quickly from hero to goat than
Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), maker of the
Blackberry smartphone. This was possibly one of the great growth
stories of the last six years (when sales grew anywhere from
+35% to +127% in any given year), but Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL)
stunning success with the iPhone and the iPad have led investors
to think RIM's days of growth are over. And they ran as fast as
they could, pushing shares down from above $80 last September to
below $50 in early July (before a recent rebound to $56).
Concerns of a massive slowdown in sales appear to be overblown.
In the most recent quarter, sales rose +24% from a year ago,
while profits rose +23%. The company added 4.9 million net new
subscribers to its service, and now has a hefty 46 million
customers. Admittedly, the customer base for the iPhone and
Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android phones are growing even
faster, so
market share is slipping. Apple is now nipping at RIM's
heels with 16.1% market share, while RIM's share fell to 19.4%
in the first quarter from 20.9% a year ago, according to IDC, an
industry research group.
But management has just announced plans to fight back, unveiling
a smartphone that has many iPhone like features and also plans
to release a tablet computer to rival the iPad. And to defend
its stock, RIM recently announced another share buyback, which
in conjunction with a just-completed buyback, would cut the
share count by -10%.
Most analysts are taking a dim view of RIM right now, but
analysts at Needham & Co. remain supporters, noting that this is
"a stock that investors now love to hate." They add that "RIMM
has several things going for it. A new operating system and
browser due by September, and the most efficient network, which
should play well as usage-based pricing takes over the market."
Action to Take --> RIM is
still posting solid growth. The fact that shares now trade for
around 10 times fiscal 2011 earnings says that investors expect
growth to sharply slow or stop completely. That's an overly
bearish view. Apple and Google are surely very tough rivals, but
RIM should also remain very relevant -- and increasingly
profitable, for some time to come.
Fast, loose and out of control
Fast-growing companies can occasionally become so obsessed with
the top-line that they lose sight of fundamental operational
controls. That appears to be the case for Canadian Solar (Nasdaq:
CSIQ), which was one of the hottest stocks in the clean
energy space -- until the wheels fell off.
Sales at this solar panel maker had zoomed from $20 million in
2005 to $700 million by 2008. And although sales flattened last
year, they are expected to surge anew this year to more than $1
billion. At the start of the year, shares briefly moved up above
the $30 mark. And then the perfect storm hit. Shares drifted
back into the $20s on concerns that demand for new solar power
equipment would slump in 2010. Then weak first quarter results
pushed shares into the teens. Finally, the company admitted in
early June that an SEC investigation would likely lead to a
re-statement of fourth quarter results. These days, shares can
be had for around $12, roughly -60% off those January trading
levels.
Despite all those issues, this still looks to be a solid
long-term growth story -- once the dust settles. After all,
Canadian Solar is back in high-growth mode thanks to recent
capacity expansions and an upturn in solar panel pricing. And by
some accounts the SEC investigation and expected fourth quarter
restatement is expected to be a one-time event and will not
impact revenue projections. Management recently raised full-year
sales guidance.
Equally important, the bottom-line should rebound in 2011, with
EPS bumping back up to $1.50. (Profits are being constrained
this year while industry demand catches up with supply -- a
situation which is expected to reverse in coming quarters).
Action to Take --> Analysts
at Wells Fargo are virtually alone in their support for Canadian
Solar right now. In mid-July, they raised their rating to
Outperform, expecting that recent
accounting and
margin concerns will soon be resolved. They also boosted
their 2011 EPS forecast to $1.99 -- well above the $1.50
consensus.
It's unclear what kind of multiple this stock deserves with its
litany of missteps. But if per share profits can indeed rebound
to $1.50 or $2.00 in 2011 and you slap a target
P/E ratio of 10 times projected profits, then shares would
trade up to $15 to $20 -- well above the current $12 price.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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