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Published: August 4, 2010
One might think that just because the
economy stinks and consumers have cut back on spending that any
stock described as being "retail" would be in trouble. For the
most part, that would be right.
However, there is a relatively unknown retail play doing just
fine in this environment. And when the economy picks up, I see
it gaining +100% or more.
This stock is not advertised as even being a retail play. It's
often confused as an Internet play, partly because of its name,
and partly because it is actually a piece of a larger
conglomerate.
The
parent company, Liberty Media
Corporation, has gone through so many incarnations that Wall
Street has had difficulty figuring out just what it's worth. The
parent company itself has wonderful assets and tons of
free cash
flow. However, its most attractive assets are consolidated into
a "tracking stock" -- the hidden retail play I'm talking about.
It's called Liberty Media Interactive (Nasdaq: LINTA).
First, what's a tracking stock? It's just a way that a large
conglomerate chooses to break up its assets so an investor can
track how specific portions of its businesses perform.
This tracking stock is chock-full of online retail businesses
that the parent company scooped up because they were tops in
their fields. The parent company owns 100% of all these
businesses that are consolidated into the tracking stock: QVC
(the TV shopping network), Backcountry.com (an outdoor equipment
retail site), Bodybuilding.com (everything having to do with
fitness), BuySeasons.com (costumes), and ProFlowers.com, which
is part of ProvideCommerce.com.
That's not all. Liberty Interactive shares also represent a 29%
ownership in Interval Leisure Group (Nasdaq: IILG), 33% of Home
Shopping Network, 24% of travel website Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE)
and 29% of Ticketmaster.
All of these assets are bundled into one tracking stock.
Liberty Interactive is dominated by QVC -- responsible for $7.3
billion in revenue and $1 billion in
operating income. Despite
the bad economy and a year in which revenue was up only +1%, QVC
provides $1.5 billion in
cash flow annually.
The other interactive businesses generated $931 million in
revenue and $49 million in net income. Although these businesses
have hit the skids thanks to the recession, they were purchased
because of their rapid revenue growth, and I expect them to pick
up again.
Liberty Interactive represents trusted brands in the field of
niche retail plays. You may not be big on the outdoors, but I
guarantee that outdoor enthusiasts know Backcountry.com, and
that's why Liberty purchased it. Such is the case with the other
businesses, many of which investors may be familiar with.
There is one big question to tackle, however. How does one value
this conglomerate? The best method I've found is to compare its
business on the basis of price and cash flow to other
conglomerates. In this economy, a company must have strong cash
flow to stay afloat. Let's see how Liberty Interactive stacks up
against other conglomerates like Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A),
Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK) and Tyco International (NYSE: TYC).
[Note: I'm backing out each company's equity interests in other
companies. I'm only interested in cash from actual operations of
the companies that these conglomerates hold a majority stake in
that are accounted for under
Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles (GAAP).]
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It is pretty astonishing to see how much cheaper Liberty
Interactive is compared to these other companies -- almost half
as cheap as the nearest competitor.
Action To Take --> Where else can you find a diversified retail
play that provides enormous cash flow, net income, and billions
in revenue? Buy Liberty Interactive for a well-diversified
retail play. It's at a fantastic price right now, down -33% from
its recent high.
I believe the market, which has never understood how to properly
value this stock, is completely overlooking its assets. The
stock is at least a two-bagger from here, and could go higher
when cash flow returns to pre-recession levels.
-- Frederick Steier
Contributor
StreetAuthority |