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Published: August 5, 2010
As I noted earlier this week, (link to five
100% gainer piece) the current market environment could prove to
be a real opportunity for investors -- if the economy sputters
to life. And even as there's ample reason to expect the economy
and the stock market to eventually strengthen, recent economic
data raise concerns that things may get a bit worse before they
get a better. In fact, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner
recently warned that the
unemployment
rate may tick up in the near-term.
So even as investors position their portfolios with potential
gainers, stocking it with defensive plays that are unlikely to
fall much in the event of further economic weakness isn't a bad
idea either. To be sure, income-oriented plays like utilities
are often seen as a
hedge against market weakness, thanks to their stable and
secure payouts. But know that if
inflation rises and government bonds offer higher yields,
these income-producing equities could suffer from comparatively
weaker payouts.
With that in mind, here's a look at three stocks that should
hold their own in tough times, thanks to their prodigious and
steady
cash flow. Each of these companies might actually benefit
from any downturn as they could deploy their considerable cash
balances to buy back an ever-increasing number of shares as
stock prices fall.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)
Shares of this large drug maker didn't fall very much when
stocks were tanking in early 2009 thanks to a strong
balance sheet, boringly predictable revenue streams and a
juicy
dividend yield. These days, the company remains a bit boring
-- sales grew just +2% in the most recent quarter -- and
investors are so indifferent that shares offer a hefty 5%
dividend yield. Yet Bristol-Myers Squibb 's financial firepower
is so strong that the company is also conducting a $3 billion
share buyback while maintaining that dividend.
Looking ahead, the company may even start to look like a growth
stock again. It is pursuing several new blockbuster drugs
including cancer drug ipilimumab, the diabetes drug
dapagliflozin, and the anti-clotting drug apixaban, which is
being co-developed with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). But right
now, focus on the protection afforded by the company's steady
operating cash flow, which now tops $5 billion annually.
As noted earlier, any share price weakness would allow
management to get even more out of that massive share buyback
program while pushing the dividend yield ever-higher.
ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG)
We all need to eat. And in tough economic times, we're more
likely to eat at home rather than dine out. That sets up this
maker of prepared foods to be a solid defensive play. The
company owns such brands as Hunts, Orville Redenbacher, Chef
Boyardee, Hebrew National and Peter Pan. In recent years,
ConAgra has beefed up its exposure to the frozen food aisle with
brands like Marie Callender, Healthy Choice and Banquet.
In recent years, management has learned to operate this business
more efficiently, steadily boosting EBITDA margins from 10.6% in
fiscal 2008 to 13.1% in fiscal 2010. Management believes the
EBITDA margin can hit 15% in the next few years, while analysts
expect profits to rise around +10% in each of the next two
years.
As profits rise, ConAgra is adding more than $500 million to its
balance sheet every year. As debt is paid down, more money is
left for share buybacks and acquisitions. The company is already
in the midst of a $500 million share buyback, which could reduce
the share count by about 4%. If no compelling acquisition
opportunities emerge during the next year, that share buyback is
likely to be extended. The company could also seek to boost its
dividend, which currently yields about 3.4%.
Shares trade for around 11 times next year's projected profits.
With that below-market
P/E, shares would be cushioned against
the pressures of a weakening stock market.
Nokia (NYSE: NOK)
It may seem odd to include this stock among a group of defensive
investments. But shares have fallen so far, and the company's
balance sheet is so strong, that any further share price
weakness looks unlikely.
Management is tasked with turning around its cell phone business
after
market share losses to the likes of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL).
That may take several years. In recent quarters, Nokia's
management has poured more resources into R&D, vowing to once
again become relevant in the smart phone market.
In the mean time, Nokia has $11 billion in cash -- $6 billion
when debt is subtracted -- which can help to sop up a lot of
shares while they are out of favor. The company has a history of
doing this: A decade ago when shares were out of favor after the
dot-com implosion, Nokia started buying back its stock,
ultimately reducing the share count from 4.8 billion to a recent
3.7 billion. The company could buy back another 650 million
shares right now at current prices for about $5.6 billion, which
would boost earnings per share (EPS) by nearly +18%.
Action to Take --> These stocks can help investors sleep a
little easier at night, as they are not likely to fall as
quickly as most growth-oriented names. Management at each
company is taking steps to boost sales and profits and has the
benefit of a bullet-proof balance sheet to work with. Investors
may want to add these defensive names to their portfolio while
the economy is still wobbling on its axis. Once the economy is
on the mend, sell off positions like these and focus more
squarely on stocks poised for higher growth.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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