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Published: August 9, 2010
In my
Daily Paycheck newsletter, I buy income-generating
securities for the long haul -- reinvesting dividends for
compound growth and income. But when I see an investment with
ridiculous fundamentals, coupled with a repeating trend, it gets
my trader's heart beating.
And that's what I see when I look at the Gabelli Global
Multimedia Trust (NYSE: GGT).
GGT is a
closed-end fund specializing in global media companies. It
has a solid portfolio of television networks and digital
television service providers. Telecoms, which are usually stable
cash-flow generators, account for about a quarter of the fund's
holdings.
The "Mad Men" Fundamentals:
Ad spending is on the rise and spiriting the profits of media
companies. In the latest wave of
earnings reports, CBS (NYSE: CBS) posted a +17% rise
in ad revenue, while local ad revenue was up +23% at Comcast
(Nasdaq: CMCSA) and +29% for News Corp's (Nasdaq: NWSA)
FOX television network. Discovery Communications (Nasdaq:
DISCA) saw international ad revenue soar +38%.
And the trend to spend -- at least on advertising -- will likely
continue. The mid-term political ad spending spree is almost
upon us. And consumer product and retail stores need to push
their brands on still-cautious consumers. For instance, a recent
article in The Wall Street Journal confirmed that General Motors
was increasing its ad spending to pre-bankruptcy levels. GM's
marketing chief said, "We have to build up the brands."
GGT holds all the big media players,
coupled with some dependable cash-producing telecoms. And while
it is a bit thinly-traded, GGT makes for a nice trade just on
the fundamentals alone. But it's actually the dividend cycle
that has the potential to make this a sweet short-term play.
The Anti-"Dividend Capture" Trading Strategy:
In the income world, many investors employ what is known as a
dividend capture strategy. They swoop in on a high-yielding
security just before its ex-dividend date. Once they qualify for
the dividend, they're gone with the wind.
The bigger the dividend payout, the more chasers in the hunt. A
thinly traded security can see big price movements before its
ex-dividend date -- often much bigger than the actual payout.
GGT suspended its dividend at the end of 2008 in an effort to
preserve capital during the financial crisis. But in March of
this year, the fund reinstituted a juicy dividend, which at
current prices represents a
yield of 10.7%.
And nothing gets a dividend chaser in the hunt faster than a
double-digit yield.
GGT is small, with a market cap of roughly $100 million. About
25,000 shares trade on a good day. Needless to say, it won't
take much interest to move this fund.
We dividend investors understand the ex-dividend "cycle" like
the backs of our hands -- especially when it comes to
double-digit yielding securities. Prices rise in the weeks prior
to the ex-dividend date, then ebbs. I'm actually surprised more
traders haven't taken advantage of the predictability of the
swing.
The fundamental strength of GGT's holdings -- and the added push
by dividend hounds -- makes this a perfect vehicle for an
anti-"dividend capture" play. And the beauty of this play is
that you can go back and do it again -- quarter after quarter.
Of course, I'll be holding GGT for the long haul in my
Daily Paycheck portfolio. But as I watch the price rise
during the next few weeks, as I believe it will, I'll be pleased
to know there are traders out there profiting from the cycle.
Action to Take--> Based on
the analysis above, I believe GGT is a good trade to put on now,
but traders will want to exit this position by September 10th --
before the next ex-dividend date. I would also recommend setting
an initial stop loss at $7.04, just to be on the safe side.
-- Amy Calistri
Editor
Stock of the Month
The Daily Paycheck
PS. If you want to hunt for exchange-traded bonds on your
own, check out QuantumOnline.com. Simply enter the ticker of the
company in the top right and then click on "Find All Related
Securities" on the subsequent page. If there are bonds
available, you'll see an entire list. |