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Published: August 12, 2010
There's not enough coal in China to meet
demand.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China
imported over 100 million tons of coal in 2009. That's the first
time in decades China became a net importer of coal. In 2006,
the largest consumer of the dirty fuel was exporting about 25
million tons.
The demand should come as no surprise. After all, China is home
to 1.3 billion people – more than four times the U.S.
population. Also, its economy is growing at a double-digit pace
year after year, more than triple our GDP growth.
As my colleague Matt Badiali pointed out recently, with stronger
growth comes more electricity demand. Most of China's
electricity (about 80%) is generated from coal-fired plants. In
2010, power-generating capacity is expected to increase another
10%. That amounts to over 200 million tons of coal usage, or 10%
more output than the second-largest coal-producing region in the
U.S.
In other words, forget the "going green" headlines. China's coal
usage will not fade anytime soon. In fact, the IEA says it will
be at least 20 years before coal's share of electricity
generation in China falls below 75%.
Based on these statistics, Shanxi will be a busy place. More
than 20% of China's coal production comes from this central
province, known as the "King of Coal."
Unfortunately, Shanxi is also known for having a terrible
safety record. More people die from mining deaths in Shanxi than
any other place in the world. Most of the deaths come from
smaller, privately owned mines. These owners (most are
millionaires) bribe local officials and inspectors to ignore
safety hazards.
That's why the Shanxi government announced a massive safety
initiative that's changing the landscape of China's coal
industry.
The new program (made official in 2008) calls for the
elimination of 1,500 small and inefficient coal mines in Shanxi.
These small producers are required to sell their businesses
(most at a huge discount) to a government-appointed
"consolidator." To put this in perspective, it's like Citigroup
and JPMorgan receiving assets from a troubled bank for 40 cents
on the dollar.
Below is a list of four China-based coal companies that trade in
the U.S. All have been chosen as consolidators by the Shanxi
government.
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I would not be surprised if some of these companies are
bought by larger international players over the next 12 months.
There's no doubt China's demand for coal will grow for decades.
And the government's initiative to give away mining assets for
dirt cheap plays right into the hands of the stocks highlighted
above.
You should consider using the market pullback to buy some of
these coal names today.
-- Frank Curzio
Managing Editor
Money Morning
Note: This Article originally appeared in
Growth
Stock Wire
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