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Published: August 13, 2010
Many companies are handling these tough times in a defensive
crouch. Keeping sales stable and expenses at a minimum enables
them to survive until the
economy gets back on its feet. But select companies are able
to take advantage of these challenging times, aggressively
seeking ways to boost sales.
I screened the entire membership of the S&P 500
Index to find companies that have been able to defy the
slowdown and keep powering the top line to new heights.
The screen revealed a number of oil and gas names that are
expected to derive higher sales from firming energy prices in
2011. But it's unclear if the economic growth will be sufficient
to boost energy prices enough to help these companies sharply
boost sales in 2011, as analysts currently suspect. So, I've
removed names such as EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG),
Apache (NYSE: APA), Range Resources (NYSE: RRC), Chevron (NYSE:
CVX) and others from this list.
As the table below highlights, all of these companies are
expected to boost sales at least +20% in the next
fiscal year. Any further economic weakness could cause these
forecasts to slip, so it pays to do further research on the
companies before deciding to buy these stocks. Some companies
such as Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) and Intuitive Surgical
(Nasdaq: ISRG) are not economically sensitive, while others
such as Cummins (NYSE: CMI) and PACCAR (Nasdaq: PCAR)
certainly are.
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Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) vs. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
The table highlights a stark contrast between these two tech
giants. Both companies are expected to boost sales roughly +25%
in 2011, but Amazon's
P/E ratio based on 2011's projected
earnings is roughly 150% higher than Apple's. That's
counter-intuitive when considering Apple recently just surged
past analyst forecasts, while Amazon lagged them. Some suggest
Apple is the one that deserves to trade with a far richer
forward multiple.
But just looking at 2010 and 2011 results is not the best way to
assess these stocks. Instead, you need to look at where these
companies are in terms of their long-term growth cycle. Are they
close to reaching a peak in terms of profits? Or do they possess
substantial growth prospects into the middle of this decade?
Also, do near-term profits truly reflect the long-term value
being created?
To its credit, Apple has indeed been a remarkable growth story
-- which should continue into next year -- but competition
continues to build, especially from Google, as I've noted
before.
Yet in relation to those questions just asked, Amazon has
established a long-term growth plan that requires large amounts
of upfront spending, but could yield the next multi-billion
dollar growth categories. Amazon's CEO Jeff Bezos is fully aware
that as a customer relies on the company for more and more
goods, it becomes even easier to lure them into new categories.
Already buying books and lawn furniture from Amazon? Why not add
cosmetics to your order and have Amazon hold off on further
shipping charges?
This is why the company keeps testing new concepts -- in hopes
of eventually selling so many goods that the delivery guy comes
by once or twice a week. In fact, Amazon is now testing delivery
of groceries. Others have tried and failed before, but Amazon
may finally have reached the necessary scale.
Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG)
Health care stocks can offer a high degree of safety in
tough markets, and sector plays that are in the midst of a
strong growth spurt can help investors play offense and defense
at the same time. One of my favorite health care names -- thanks
to its steady growth -- is Celgene, which focuses on treatments
for auto-immune disorders and various cancers. The company's
drug portfolio is anchored by Revlimid and Thalomid, both of
which treat myelomas -- blood cancers that emanate from bone
marrow.
Management rode the coattails of those drugs and saw sales rise
at least +50% in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Sales growth cooled to
+19% last year, so the company acquired Gloucester Pharma, which
has an approved drug for the treatment of t-cell lymphoma, in
January, 2010. Celgene's $3 billion acquisition of Abraxis
Pharma (Nasdaq: ABII) should also close in coming weeks,
which should give the company greater exposure to the breast
cancer treatment market. Back in June, when the deal was
announced, Citigroup's Yaron Werber noted that "the deal is not
cheap but has attractive commercial potential in an overlooked
asset. This is exactly the right time and kind of asset to
invest in."
Those deals, along with continued organic growth among its
existing drugs, should push sales up more than +25% in 2011,
according to analyst's forecasts. The company still has ample
cash left to find additional tuck-in acquisitions to keep sales
moving higher in 2012. Sooner or later, Celgene is going to be
the target of larger suitors in the pharmaceutical industry,
thanks to its increasing heft.
Action to Take --> These
companies are finding ways to grow during tough times, which
means that if economic conditions improve beyond 2011, any
headwinds become tailwinds and set the stage for further growth.
Amazon's stock is a risky, but potentially game-changing play
and should hold appeal to investors looking for one of the best
potential growth stories during the next five years. Celgene, in
contrast, represents a solid investment in terms of near-term
results and reasonable fundamentals.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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