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Published: August 13, 2010
When communications software firm VirnetX Holdings (AMEX:
VHC) released quarterly results last Monday, investors may
have thought the company's press release had a glaring error.
Sales, which had never exceeded $21,000 in any prior quarter,
suddenly exploded to $200 million. It was no misprint. VirnetX
finally got a nice payoff after several years of lawsuits
regarding patent infringements.
Other companies that sue to get royalties are also hopeful for
similar windfalls. And when these companies prevail, profits can
grow quickly, as patent and royalty income often flow straight
to the
bottom line.
So how can investors profit from companies with potentially
lucrative patents? I've uncovered three companies sitting on
potential gold mines in terms of their intellectual property.
1. VirnetX Holdings
In the next 12 months, consumers should see an array of new
smart phones offering super-fast download speeds. [See:
The Time is Ripe to Short this Wireless Upstart]
Yet as more and more personal and corporate information is sent
out over the mobile broadband airwaves, the risk of data theft
also rises. To tackle that, VirnetX has developed a range of
software encryption tools to keep that wireless data secure.
Many companies, including the major wireless carriers, are
working to come up with their own fixes. But this little-known
company has a hunch that any solution these companies come up
with might impinge on its patents. So they've gone to court.
Lawsuits are never easy -- until you've won a major one. That's
why VirNet's victorious lawsuit against mighty Microsoft (Nasdaq:
MSFT) is so important, possibly setting a precedent for
future legal activity. In early March, a jury awarded the
company $106 million for Microsoft's unlicensed use of a pair of
VirnetX's patents. Two months later, Microsoft not only agreed
to that decision, but agreed to pay a total of $200 million for
the use of all 46 of VirnetX's patents. Shares quickly soared to
$8 back in March when the news was first announced, but have
since fallen back to $6. Now, VirNextX is gearing up to secure
other licensing agreements for its technology. On Thursday, the
company filed fresh lawsuits against Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL),
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Japan's NEC, and others.
Action to Take --> It's
impossible to predict if and when those suits will be resolved,
but VirNetX's $270 million
market value appears to sharply discount the prospect of a
few more major legal victories. Shares could meander in coming
quarters, but could spike sharply higher of any of those
defendants choose to settle the lawsuit.
2. Rambus (Nasdaq: RMBS)
With a mountain of technology patents under its belt, Rambus
(Nasdaq: RMBS) has a long history of successfully suing any
firm that appears to use its Intellectual Property (IP) without
permission. Friday morning, the company secured a licensing
agreement for a few of its patents with NVidia (Nasdaq: NVDA),
pushing Rambus' shares up +5%. During the past decade, the
company has waited for its patents to be broadly used before
seeking legal remedies, which has usually netted between $100
million and $200 million in annual revenue.
Rambus doesn't always take the aggressive legal route. In late
June, it showed it can also play nice, using its considerable IP
to help develop a market, rather than pounce once a market is
developed. Although Rambus is best known for its IP in the area
of semiconductors and telecom, it also has an impressive array
of LED lighting patents, which it acquired and then augmented
with its own IP.
The new LED division, which uses back-light technology to
provide sharper illumination, has already found its first major
customer: GE (NYSE: GE). Rambus announced in late June
that they were teaming up to develop a range of newly-developed
architectural lighting products. This looks like a win/win for
Rambus, as it will require no capital outlays, and the company
can simply share in the profits.
Yet Rambus is mostly still focused on litigating when necessary.
The company has recently had a string of legal victories with
firms such as Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Samsung, which are
expected to result in steadily rising royalty payments in coming
quarters. And Rambus' legal momentum looks set to continue. The
company is expected to imminently win a patent case with Japan's
Elpida Memory, which could net close to $500 million in an
upfront license, and then more revenue from ongoing royalties.
Taiwan's Hynix, along with Micron Technology (NYSE: MU),
are also in Rambus' crosshairs after a recent preliminary legal
decision in its favor.
As is the case with all "intellectual property plays,"
there's no way to peg any sort of value created by some of these
deals. (Details are sometimes limited for legal reasons.) So how
do you place a value on a company that has erratic, but
bounteous earnings streams? A
P/E ratio doesn't apply. Rambus lost nearly $1 a share last
year, will likely make more than a $1 a share this year, and
it's anybody's guess what will happen next year on the earnings
front.
In this instance,
enterprise value (market capitalization plus debt minus
cash) is a better gauge. The company has about $600 million in
net cash, implying an enterprise value of around $1.6 billion.
Yet the company could snag up to $2 billion or more in fresh
patent agreements over the next several years.
Action to Take --> This is
all very imprecise, which explains why most Wall Street firms
simply avoid trying to even value and follow the stock. But with
each passing year, it's apparent that Rambus' team of 290
engineers (out of 350 employees) are on the right track,
developing patents that turn into major money makers. Over the
next 12 months, investors should see further large checks being
mailed to Rambus.
3. Interdigital (Nasdaq: IDCC)
With more than 12,000 patents and patents pending, Interdigital
is seen by some as the grandfather of the technology patent
movement. Interdigital, like VirnetX, focuses on wireless
technology. The company's software is used in the majority of
all 3G cell phones and wireless networks, helping to manage
bandwidth constraints, network capacity issues and security.
In contrast to Rambus with its lumpy, occasionally massive
one-time payments, Interdigital likes to secure long-term
revenue streams. As the company has secured new long-term
licensing arrangements, the company's sales -- and profits --
have steadily risen. By 2009, the company generated a
company-record $284 million in
free cash flow.
Although Interdigital's sales and revenue have been remarkably
steady for this type of company, a few one-time payments are
nevertheless spiking sales and profits this year. Analysts
expect revenue to rise more than +20%, and
earnings per share (EPS) to surge more than +80% to about
$3.20 in 2010. That surge also means next year's results will
show a bit of a pullback.
Action to Take --> With that
kind of financial performance, coming up with a
fair value for the stock is indeed tricky. Dougtherty & Co.
uses a weighted average of the next 10 years of
cash flow, arriving at a target price of $36 -- roughly +40%
ahead of current levels.
Analysts at Hilliard Lyons think shares are worth $34, or 12
times Interdigital's 2010 profit forecast. They also note that
the company's growing cash balance is also of interest.
Interdigital now has $486 million in cash ($12 a share), and
analysts wonder if a share buyback, a one-time large
dividend, or even a bid to go private might be in the offing
-- all usually good things for shareholders.
Note: All three of these companies appear to be racking up
impressive licensing deals that will, over the long-haul,
generate compelling free cash flow growth. Other licensing
companies to research include Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM),
Digimarc (Nasdaq: DMRC), Tessera Technologies (Nasdaq: TSRA)
and Acacia Research (Nasdaq: ACTG).
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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