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Published: August 19, 2010
One of the most
fertile areas for investment research can always be found among
stocks that trade for less than the price of a deluxe
cheeseburger.
When a stock is below $5 or $6, many mutual funds are prevented
from owning them. Yet if these stocks can make some headway and
move up toward the $10 mark, then the stocks will begin to pop
up on fund managers' radars. And when they begin to pour money
into these stocks, their buying efforts can quickly move shares
up into the low teens.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a fresh look at my favorite
names that are trading below $6. That's not to say that these
stocks are micro-caps or nano-caps -- I tend to like companies
that are worth at least $250 million, as they have to be at
least that large to ever get noticed by those stock-moving fund
managers. Here's a quick synopsis of my current favorite stocks
under $6.
JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU)
This low-cost airline is gradually morphing from industry
upstart status into maturity. Gone are the days of white-hot
growth, but JetBlue is quietly becoming a profit machine. Per
share profits are likely to double this year, and as long as the
economy stays aloft, per-share profits should rise another
+50% in 2011 to around $0.60.
That profit surge comes even as revenue growth is expected to
slow to around +10% next year. I always like to see profits
growing faster than sales, as it means that a company is able to
squeeze more profits out of each incremental dollar of sales.
For JetBlue, the operating
leverage comes from continually optimizing its route
structure to re-direct empty planes to cities where demand is
more robust.
In the most recent quarter, JetBlue flew +5.5% more passenger
miles than a year ago, but the number of customers grew nearly
+9%. Whereas planes were 79.5% full a year ago, they're now 82%
full. The extra revenue from those additional customers is pure
gravy, as the flight attendants, pilots and fuel costs need to
be spent whether a plane is half-full or completely full.
Even as JetBlue reaches maturity, it still has more paths to
growth. The carrier has nearly $1 billion in unrestricted cash
and may look to keep expanding. In recent years, the company has
focused on expansion into the Caribbean and Latin America. Those
routes have historically been very profitable for the larger
carriers such as AMR (NYSE: AMR) and Continental
(NYSE: CAL). Further inroads into these areas from JetBlue's
New York and Orlando hubs could help the top and
bottom line keep expanding for some time to come.
Leapfrog (NYSE: LF)
I continue to think that this maker of educational toys is
emerging as a great turnaround play. I wrote about Leapfrog in
July and since then, the company modestly exceeded
second-quarter forecasts. [Read:
The Best Idea of the Week]
But this is really a seasonal play as the company derives almost
all of its profits during the holiday shopping season. It's
encouraging that Leapfrog is posting improving results, and
shares can move back to the $7 level seen in April if September
results are impressive. But the real break-out for this former
highflyer wouldn't come until confidence is increased that the
holiday shopping season will be a strong one.
Innerworkings (Nasdaq: INWK)
Speaking of former highflyers, this provider of corporate
printing services and marketing supplies has seen its shares
fall from $18 back in early 2008 to a recent $5.50. That's
because growth sharply decelerated as clients cut back on many
marketing campaigns.
But Innnerworkings is growing once again. Sales rose +20% in the
most recent quarter from a year ago, and
earnings per share (EPS) is starting to slowly climb quarter
after quarter. To help sales rebound, Innerworkings is putting
more resources behind a division that handles Business Process
Outsourcing (BPO). In a nutshell, BPO allows large enterprises
to focus on their core business and devolve non-core functions
such as document management, business workflow and other mundane
tasks to firms like Innerworkings.
Analysts expect sales to rise +15% both this year and next, but
it's worth noting that Innerworkings has a history of making
highly-accretive acquisitions to bolster growth. If the company
can pull off a few small deals, growth could exceed +20% next
year. Although I don't see shares returning to those 2008
heights, I still see upside to the $9 to $10 range in the next
year as investors once again embrace this company as a nice and
steady growth story.
China Security & Surveillance (NYSE: CSR)
It's fair to wonder what it will take to really get these shares
going. China Security is one of the leading suppliers of
security gear to companies and governments in China. The company
has posted impressive growth, as sales have risen at least +35%
in each of the last four years.
After stumbling in the March quarter, China Security posted much
stronger results in the most recent quarter. When results came
out in late July, the stock rose +16% in one day to more than
$6. Less than a month later, investors have already forgotten
the name and it is slowly drifting back toward the $5 mark.
But this is still very much a growth story. China Security has
begun to sign an increasing number of government contracts,
which typically carry gross margins 500 basis points higher than
corporate contracts. The spurt in government business is
attributable to a "safe-city" program that seeks to deploy banks
of video cameras, traffic management systems and emergency
response systems in China's 200 largest cities. The new
government contracts have helped push China Security's
backlog for delivery within the next 12 months up to $213
million from $130 million a year ago and should help meet
analysts' sales forecasts in coming quarters.
Meanwhile shares trade for about five times this year's
projected profits. The low multiple is partially due to the fact
that the company has often issued fresh rounds of new stock to
raise cash. Management insists that the capital-raising efforts
are now completed. If China Security can continue to deliver
impressive quarters and refrain from diluting stock any more,
then shares may finally start to garner a more robust
P/E ratio.
Action to Take --> All of
these companies are boosting sales and profits, but their shares
are far closer to their all-time lows than their all-time highs.
A stumbling global economy might keep a lid on these shares for
a bit longer, but when the economy rebounds and growth stocks
are back in vogue, they could zoom ahead quickly. You may also
want to listen to each of the companies' upcoming conference
calls to be assured that management continues to execute on
plan.
-- Frederick Steier
Contributor
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