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Published: August 19, 2010
The United States isn't yet teetering on
the brink of
insolvency like Greece -- but it's not for a lack of trying.
In fact, we're on an eerily similar path.
According to the U.S. Treasury, our national debt is currently
more than $13 trillion (that's a 13 with twelve zeroes). And
that's not even counting unfunded Medicare and social security
liabilities. That works out to roughly $118,477 for each and
every taxpayer. But
this is a clock that never stops ticking.
At the current pace, we are slipping $3.9 billion deeper in the
hole every day -- $163 million per hour. That means that by the
time you finish reading the next paragraph, we'll have saddled
our kids and grandkids with another million or two that must be
repaid.
The federal government has now run a
deficit for 21 consecutive
months (the longest stretch of red ink on record). In April, tax
receipts totaled $245 billion, but outlays hit $328 billion.
That means for every $1 taken in, we spent $1.34. No household
could survive long on that reckless budget -- but then again,
you and I can't print money.
For all of 2010, the deficit is projected to reach $1.5
trillion. That's an insane +780% increase in just three years.
As a percentage of
GDP, the gap is currently in the
double-digits for the first time since World War II. And the
combined shortfalls could total $9 trillion in the next decade
-- ballooning the debt past $20 trillion.
At that point, assuming an average interest
rate of 5% (far below what we'd have to pay in a real crisis),
interest payments alone would hit $1 trillion per year --
leaving very little for anything else.
And forget about the
principal. Even if we could pay down the
balance at a rate of $10 million per day, it would still take
5,753 years to become debt free. Yet our leaders aren't
interested in paying the tab -- they're still spending like
drunken sailors.
Sowing the seeds of inflation
Without a dramatic economic surge to boost revenues, U.S. debt
could exceed GDP within the next two or three years. And there's
only so much the
International Monetary Fund could do (20 cents
of every IMF dollar comes from American taxpayers, and we can't
bail ourselves out).
As we saw when Greece reached its tipping point, the
international community could soon demand much greater incentive
to lend us money. This could ravage both the debt and equity
markets. And the U.S. dollar (a safe-haven currency under other
circumstances) will come under direct fire.
So where does all this lead?
Influential
bond investor Bill Gross believes the United States
is locked on a collision course with a "debt super cycle." And
former Fed chief Alan Greenspan is warning of painful
double-digit
inflation on the horizon.
Just as France deliberately stoked inflation to ease the burden
of debts amassed during World War I, the only way the U.S. can
make a dent is by diluting the value of a dollar. Leaving
interest rates at zero is a good start, and running the printing
presses overtime will finish the job.
Make no mistake: this is an indirect form of taxation. Whether
the government takes a 25% upfront cut from each dollar of your
paycheck, or simply devalues that dollar to the point where it
can only buy $0.75 worth of products it could have before, the
end result is the same.
Fortunately, there are ways to turn the tables. In fact, certain
asset classes don't just protect against inflation, but profit
handsomely from it. Here are a few ideas:
1.) Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum would be a
natural beneficiary and a reliable inflation
hedge.
2.) Commodities (particularly dollar-denominated ones like crude
oil) would likely flourish as the greenback crumbles.
3.) Foreign money markets would generate relatively safe monthly
income, and currency
appreciation will sweeten returns. I've
personally been accumulating a position in the Franklin Hard
Currency Fund (Nasdaq: ICPHX).
4.) If the U.S. is foundering, then you'll want a portion of
your money as far away as possible, like Chile, for example. The
expanding South American market would remain buoyant with copper
exports and relies on the U.S. for just 15% of its trade.
5.) Further
depreciation of the dollar could be a boon for
multinationals like Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) that generate more than
half of their sales overseas.
Action to Take --> As
I've mentioned previously, one solution I've recommended to
readers of my
StreetAuthority Market Advisor newsletter is the
Jefferies Global Commodity Equity (NYSE: CRBQ) ETF. [Read:
The Easiest Way to Profit from Inflation]
Another fund I've told my readers about is an exchange-traded
tund (ETF) that's basically a "fund-of-funds" built for a single
purpose: to keep investors a step ahead of inflation. (Go
here to find out more.)
What ever method you might prefer, it might be a good idea to
start accumulating a small position now. When the time comes,
make one of these the first places you revisit. You'll be glad
you did.
-- Nathan Slaughter
Editor
StreetAuthority Market Advisor, The ETF
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