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Published: September 2, 2010
Ever notice how the simplest task is more
complicated these days? Like buying cereal at the grocery store?
I just popped in to get a box of Cheerios and was confronted
with no less than 6 different varieties: honey, frosted,
chocolate, multi-grain, banana nut and oat clusters.
These products all belong to the same basic Cheerios category.
And they have similar packaging and prices. But open the boxes
and you find some pretty stark differences inside.
The same is true with
exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Investors usually have a general shopping list in mind: biotech,
small-cap, foreign bonds -- whatever. And once we get to those
aisles in the ETF supermarket, there are a dizzying number of
choices.
It's a common mistake to assume that one fund in a specific
category looks more or less like all the others, so we grab the
closest box off the shelf without checking the portfolio's
ingredients. That's a great way to get vanilla when you really
want chocolate.
Many funds look alike on the outside, so it's easy to assume
they're built alike on the inside. If crude oil is headed
higher, isn't one ETF as good as the other? Is there really much
difference between the Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE: VDE)
and WisdomTree International Energy ETF (NYSE: DKA)?
Actually, there is.
One fund is weighted by
market capitalization while the other is weighted by
dividends. One fund invests mostly in the United States while
the other invests strictly overseas. One fund has zero exposure
to BP (NYSE: BP) -- for the other, it's the single
largest holding.
I'm not making a judgment call on either of these funds, I'm
just saying it would be foolish to assume these structurally
different funds will deliver identical returns.
You can't tell much from a fund's name without digging deeper.
Consider Merrill Lynch's Internet Infrastructure HOLDRs
(NYSE: IIH). On the surface, the fund sounds like an ideal
way to harness the Internet's vast profit potential. But what
exactly are you buying?
Right now, the portfolio has just eight holdings. Six of those
are tiny penny stocks. And the other two, Akamai Technologies
(Nasdaq: AKAM) and Verisign (Nasdaq: VRSN), soak up
90% of the fund's assets. Even if you like those two stocks, why
not just buy them individually and save yourself the custody
fees?
You see, the fund is governed by flawed indexing methodology.
The sterile portfolio is fixed and can't be rebalanced or
reconstituted. So over the years, the original holdings have
dwindled: Alteon Websystems, for example, was acquired by Nortel
Networks, while Inktomi became part of Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO).
Portal Software, also a former holding, has been delisted.
This handicap has led to streaky performance and generally
dismal returns for investors. In its heyday, IIH used to change
hands above $55. Today it trades for less than $4. Long-time
shareholders have seen more than -95% of their value wiped out.
(Personally, I prefer adaptable funds that can hit the refresh
button, particularly in the tech sector, where disruptive
changes mean today's highflier is tomorrow's has-been.)
Of course, this is hardly an isolated
example.
Popular new products designed to address specific strategies are
another potential pitfall. There are ETFs to protect against
inflation, to bet on falling home values, even to profit
from a widening (or narrowing) of the
yield curve.
These funds are innovative and clever, but don't naively assume
they all have flawless execution -- that might be a costly
mistake.
Case in point: there are concrete reasons to believe the U.S.
dollar is headed down the wrong path, but without knowing where
they'd land, some investors jumped with both feet into the
PowerShares U.S. Dollar Bearish Fund (NYSE: UDN).
The name sounds right. But is this really the best way to
hedge against a falling dollar? Probably not. As collateral
for futures contracts, the fund holds U.S. treasuries, which I
think are overvalued and likely to fall. More importantly, the
euro accounts for 58% of the underlying
index.
So UDN isn't so much betting against the dollar as it is betting
on the euro -- but both are likely to lose ground relative to
other currencies. If you own UDN, ask yourself this question:
What's to stop the
greenback from depreciating in general but gaining against
the euro?
Talk about winning the battle but losing the war.
Action to Take --> Here's
the point: don't assume the work is done just because you've
identified a sector, country or theme that sounds promising. You
have to go a step further and isolate which product within that
niche best fits your goals.
There are now about 1,000 ETFs on the market -- and more are
being launched every day. But more options mean more homework.
Familiarize yourself with a fund's tactics -- a traditional
issuer like iShares does things different than a
quantitative-driven indexer like PowerShares. Which flavor you
prefer depends on your own particular tastes.
Take it from me, it's worth your time. I spend hours reading the
fine print before recommending a fund to my
ETF Authority readers, not just to avoid ticking time
bombs -- but to also identify best-in-class candidates. Knowing
the inner workings has put dozens of winners in our shopping
cart: my current portfolio holdings have produced an
average gain of +37.3%.
-- Nathan Slaughter
Editor
StreetAuthority Market Advisor, The ETF
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