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Published: September 7, 2010
As the U.S. economy tries to sputter back to life, one
important fact is increasingly clear: any rebound is likely to
be muted as the country wrestles with persistently high
unemployment and confidence-sapping budget deficits. That's why
it's more important than ever to make sure your portfolio is
also exposed to more dynamic corners of the global economy.
For many investors, that means an internationally-focused
exchange-traded fund (ETF) that focuses on specific
countries. But that approach may also mean that you're buying
some good companies as well as some bad ones. [Our free course:
The 6 Rules Every Investor Must Know]
Instead, why not focus on stellar companies with proven track
records and strong exposure to global exports? For my money,
these four foreign stocks -- all of which have
ADRs trading here in the United States -- offer a solid
blend of geographic diversity, financial strength and
respectable long-term growth prospects.
Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC)
We all know that Honda's cars have a solid reputation here in
the U.S. But the Honda brand is also gaining a foothold in
fast-growing markets such as Brazil and China, along with other
developing markets, like the CIVETS countries I wrote about
recently.
Honda has two great engineering strengths. Its engines are very
frugal, and they emit very low levels of pollutants. As fuel
economy regulations tighten, and as carbon emissions look to be
increasingly restricted in many countries, Honda should make
further inroads.
I think of Honda as a "rain or shine" stock. If the global
economy fares well in coming years, Honda should see sales rise
in tandem with the global auto market. And if the global economy
slumps, Honda's financial strength and lean operations should
enable it to operate profitably, even as rivals face distress.
That's just what happened in fiscal (March) 2009: most auto
makers reported sharp losses, while Honda saw net income drop
from $6 billion to $1.4 billion as sales fell more than -15%.
But the company proved that it can handle the tough times
without falling into the red and damaging its impressive
balance sheet.
Shares of Honda trade for about 11 times projected 2012 profits.
Auto makers never garner very high
P/E ratios, so I think this stock only has +20% to +25%
upside during the next year or so. But this is a great-long-term
holding that could appreciate at a moderate pace for many years
to come.
Vale (NYSE: VALE)
Few companies can afford to commit more than $10 billion to a
new division, but that's just what Brazil's Vale is doing,
according to The Wall Street Journal. Vale, which is already the
world's largest producer of iron ore and other minerals, aims to
similarly dominate the market for crop fertilizers. These
disparate industries share several traits: they require large
amounts of capital to achieve global scale; they will always be
in demand as long as people need to eat, drive cars or live in
apartment buildings; and they traditionally generate solid
long-term returns when a company employs a healthy (but not too
high) amount of debt
leverage. Vale carries $25 billion in debt, though that
figure is quite manageable in light of the company's roughly $12
billion in annual
cash flow (when averaged out over the last three years).
One of the charms of an expansion into fertilizers is that it
allows Vale to reduce its dependence on the highly cyclical
minerals market. And the more cyclical a business, the lower P/E
ratio its shares typically command. By diversifying its revenue
and profit sources, which lead to more stable growth, investors
are likely to bump up the projected P/E ratio. Shares now trade
for less than seven times next year's profits, but that forward
multiple could move up to 10 once the company's
diversification efforts pay off.
Equally important, Vale is focused on markets around the globe,
but is especially dominant in its home region of Latin America,
which is seeing steady economic advances as Brazil, Chile and
Colombia ripen into truly first-world economies.
Central European Media (Nasdaq: CETV)
Even as investors have come to see Asia and Latin America as
compelling growth-oriented regions, they have largely bypassed
Eastern Europe and the countries that once comprised the Soviet
Union. To be sure, this whole region has been slow to develop,
and per capita consumer spending badly lags neighbors in Western
Europe. But progress has been considerable when you consider
just how moribund this region was 20 years ago.
Few remember that dynamic economies in Korea, Japan, Chile and
Brazil had underwhelmed international investors until they built
up an economic infrastructure to support a growing middle class.
Eastern Europe -- from the Baltic States in the North to Croatia
in the south -- are experiencing similar growing pains but are
on a clear path to more robust economies.
There are many ways and sectors to play this nascent trend, but
I prefer to focus on the consumer sector, which is increasingly
developing a taste for more sophisticated entertainment and
lifestyle choices. Central European Media is a solid
proxy for consumers from Moscow to Bucharest. The company
has invested heavily to become a dominant player in advertising
and TV programming.
As noted, growth in these areas is still erratic, so the
company's sales are barely growing this year as ad rates slump.
But investors need to stay focused on the company's track
record, when sales grew at least +20% every year from 2002 to
2008. Even as the global economy rebounds, growth in the years
ahead may cool from that pace. We're still a long way from
economic parity between Eastern and Western Europe, so ad rates
have ample room to rise in Eastern Europe in lockstep with
still-rising consumer incomes.
But investors like to look at current quarterly trends and have
decided that shares are unlikely move higher in the near-term,
so they've moved elsewhere. This is a stock that moved toward
the $120 mark in late 2007 and now hovers around $20. I don't
expect shares to re-visit those heights any tome soon, but once
investors re-visit this region, the stock is still likely to be
seen as a logical play and shares could easily move back to the
$30 or $40 mark. More importantly, Central European Media should
be seen as a long-term growth vehicle, and shares can be viewed
as a "Buy-and-Hold" global investment.
ABB (NYSE: ABB)
While the first three stocks profiled each represent a different
region, this last pick is a proxy for growth on all continents
-- including Africa. In a nutshell, ABB is an awful lot like
General Electric (NYSE: GE) without the volatile finance
arm. As the world builds more power plants to meet the demands
of power-hungry middle classes in emerging economies throughout
Asia, Latin America and Africa, ABB is often one of the lead
contractors.
It's a remarkably stable, but unsexy
business model. ABB has earned $3.1 billion or $3.2 billion
in net income in each of the past three years. Profits are
likely to be off a bit this year due to the timing of some large
project completions, but sales and profits are expected to
rebound at a nice clip next year. Shares hit $30 a few years ago
as power plant spending surged. The global slowdown has pushed
shares back to $20, but in the face of robust long-term
infrastructure needs, ABB should see sales and profits rise
steadily in coming years, helping shares to eventually eclipse
that $30 mark.
Action to Take --> It's
important to stay focused on U.S. stocks, many of which are
trading at very low valuations. But to guard against any
prolonged economic weakness here at home, your portfolio should
also have exposure to some of the more dynamic pockets of the
global economy. Any and all of these stocks should allow you to
maximize returns while cutting down some single-country risk.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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