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Published: September 7, 2010
We got three pieces of seemingly unrelated news last week.
But they all underscore just how connected the world's markets
have become. These trends will figure prominently in your
investing scorecard for years to come.
First, there is the new record in forex currency trading. The
Bank for International Settlements dips its meters into the
world of currencies every three years by way of a survey. Its
latest effort shows currency trading tops $4 trillion a day.
That's a meaninglessly large number in a sea of such numbers, I
know. (Who can really imagine what $4 trillion is?)
But for comparison, look at recent history. In 2007, it was $3.3
trillion. In 2004, it was ''only'' $1.9 trillion. We've more
than doubled it in just six years.
That reflects the surging flows of money
between countries. If you are an American company and do
business in China, you create a need for foreign exchange as you
swap profits from China back to dollars. Or if you choose to
invest in China, your dollars convert to renminbi.
Every international transaction generates a need for currency
trading. As The Wall Street Journal said of the recent
BIS survey:
''The continued rise in trading reflects the increased
globalization of investing. With the big developed economies of
the U.S., Europe and Japan struggling, investors are turning
toward other markets for returns and generating more foreign
exchange trading in the process.''
That's the key, in my view, and you can see it when you look at
the numbers in more detail. Trading in dollars for Indian,
Brazilian and Chinese currency jumped. But old mainstays like
trading dollars for British pounds actually fell.
You can also see how important commodities have become in all of
this. If you look, U.S. dollars converted to Australian dollars
jumped +35% since 2007 -- well ahead of the +20% gain in overall
currency trading. And trading in the Canadian dollar was up even
more, at +44%. Canada and Australia are resource rich and U.S.
investors are putting more money there to take stakes in
resource companies and projects.
If you look at stock mutual funds, those that invest overseas
have taken in $42 billion this year. That's in sharp contrast to
outflow in U.S. stock funds.
The second piece of news that grabbed my eye this week was that
meat prices have hit a 20-year high. Global meat prices are up
+16% in the last year. Why?
Again, you have to think in terms of a global marketplace. There
has been strong demand for a higher-protein diet from emerging
markets as people get richer. In short, people are eating more
meat. The Middle East is one of the largest importers for food,
for example. Strong demand for lamb there helped push lamb
prices to 37-year highs.
In Brazil, meat consumption will hit a record this year. That
means less meat leaving Brazil, which could matter, since it is
the second largest exporter, behind only the U.S. And if you
look around the globe -- Russia, Mexico, South Korea and Vietnam
-- they will all consume more meat this year.
China too has seen its meat consumption increase thanks to a
burgeoning middle class that's made meat a larger part of its
diet. By most estimates, emerging market demand for meat will
rise at least +65% to midcentury.
And finally, the last bit of news was the report on factory
activity in the U.S. and China. It sent a jolt through markets
on Wednesday. But again, look beneath the surface. What was the
key driver of this favorable report?
As The Wall Street Journal put it: ''The manufacturing
sector's recovery is closely tied to global growth, especially
Asia.'' Even just casual look at U.S. manufacturers for
anecdotal evidence confirms it. The WSJ story included a note on
Furniture Brands, which is tripling its capital spending this
year. Most of it will go toward expansion -- in Indonesia. Joy
Global, a Milwaukee-based manufacturer, raised its profit
outlook for the year.
The key reason? Growth in China.
Today's world is very much a global one. It's becoming more so
by the day. As always, there will be winners and losers. As
investors, this globally connected world creates a lot more
uncertainty. But one thing is certain: You ignore the markets
beyond your borders at your peril.
-- Chris Mayer
Editor
Penny Sleuth
Note: This article originally appeared on
Penny Sleuth
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