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Published: September 20, 2010
Last week, I discussed a huge trend resource investors
should keep an eye on: the coming Yukon mining boom.
Several big new discoveries in the Canadian province are
generating tremendous interest... and big stock profits like
ATAC Resources' +500%-plus return.
Today, I'll tell you about another region you should watch
closely: Africa.
While just the word "Africa" scares off
most investors, it's actually enjoying a big mining boom right
now... and will for a long time.
Much of the continent has been ravaged by wars and dictators for
the past century... so huge swaths of the continent are
unexplored by modern techniques. And companies like Red Back
Mining are finding incredible gold deposits. The company holds
several terrific ones located in the West African nations of
Ghana and Mauritania. These deposits were so impressive that
gold giant Kinross Gold just bought the company for $7.1
billion.
Despite this huge takeover, Africa-focused mining stocks get
little respect in the market compared to their North American
compatriots. Here's a quick look:
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Unlike African companies, the market puts a premium on North
American-focused companies. Take $10 billion gold explorer
Agnico Eagle, for example. Its resources sell for over $1,000
per ounce. That's two times the value of the next-most-expensive
African resources, owned by Red Back. That takes into account
the 30% acquisition premium Kinross paid for it.
You probably won't see an African gold miner trading for $1,000
per reserve ounce. Companies in scary places trade at
substantial discounts. Take Banro, for example. This company
controls several huge deposits in the Democratic Republic of
Congo... which in the late 1990s was ground zero for the world's
deadliest war since World War II. It's a scary place, and
Banro's gold is priced to reflect that, at $33 per ounce.
Fear discounts are tricky. Fear is an emotion. It's easy to
invest the wrong way listening to an emotion. For example,
investors are riding another emotion up in the Yukon...
excitement. The fever pitch surrounding ATAC's gold discovery
sent this small company from $0.49 per share to $7.35 per share
this year. It's currently around a $600 million market value.
Now, the company doesn't have a resource estimate. However, at
$600 million, it would need to have 1.2 million ounces to trade
close to Red Back's price per resource ounce. And Red Back's
resources are in production.
My point is, Red Back is cheaper because Africa is scary... and
ATAC is expensive because it's not scary.
By any calm, cool analysis, we can see gold in Africa sells at a
discount to gold in North America. If you leave your fear bias
at home, you can find some excellent gold companies there. Super
investor David Einhorn owns a gold producer named African
Barrick Gold, which trades on the London exchange under ABG.
Einhorn is a value investor, and I'm sure he saw some "Africa
discount" in the stock.
My personal favorite regions to focus on are in West Africa --
Ghana, Mali, and Cote d'Ivoire. These countries have big mining
operations by companies like Newmont, Barrick, and Goldcorp. If
you focus on those areas, you can find great opportunities...
often for 50% off or more.
--Matt Badiali
Editor
Growth Stock Wire
Note: This article originally appeared on
Growth Stock Wire
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