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Published: August 2, 2010
My top-rated stock this week (out of more
than 6,000 stocks and ETFs) is a basic materials company that
focuses on industrial metals, minerals and oil and gas. In
general, I like the basic materials segment of the global
economy and even more so when the companies in this segment are
headquartered in either Australia, Canada or Brazil -- three
countries blessed with an abundance of natural resources and
strong emerging economies.
And although my 90-day global forecast data
(see more on this in my
Mastering the Markets newsletter this week) is providing
an early warning that the likelihood of a -10% correction is
building, there are plenty of signs that the market could
continue to move higher in the near term.
A bull-trending market is generally positive for basic material
stocks. As you can see from my time-cycle forecast for the
sector (below), this market segment looks to be trending higher
for the next couple of months (although some downward pressure
is forecasted for late October).
In my rules-based trading book, "10: The
Essential Rules for Beating the Market", I talk about the
importance of buying fundamentally strong stocks; especially if
faced with the likelihood of strong market volatility.
Fundamentally strong stocks tend to have better staying power in
falling markets. In the case of this week's pick, this stock has
the highest combined score for fundamentals and technicals,
making it a great candidate for potential profit.
My top pick for this week is BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP).
BHP is an Australian-based company engaged in the exploration
for and production of: crude oil, liquefied natural gas,
bauxite, alumina, aluminum, copper, silver, lead, zinc, uranium,
diamonds, titanium, potash, nickel, iron, manganese and coal. If
you like the industrial metals and minerals segment of the
global economy, BHP should be a definite consideration.
BHP's fundamentals are strong:
- The growth rate for total sales for the most recent
quarter versus the same quarter a year ago comes in at
+38.1%. This compares to the metal mining industry's average
growth rate of +21.6% and the S&P 500's average growth rate
of +10.5%.
- BHP's earnings growth rate for the most recent quarter was
+102.7% compared to a year ago and trailing twelve month
earnings were up +116.6% during the same period.
- BHP's five year average earnings growth rate is +17.2%,
while the average growth rate for its industry was +13.4% and
the S&P 500's was less than half that at +7.2% during the same
time period.
- BHP's
P/E of about 16 makes it nicely undervalued compared to its
peers. It also throws its investors a decent 2.5%
yield.
Below are some of my technical observations on BHP:
- BHP trades in Zone 3 -- indicating that it might be trending
higher, having just broken out above the 200 day moving average.
- The average daily volume has begun to increase on increasing
share price, which is a potentially good sign that momentum is
building in this stock.
- Both the industry (metal mining) and the sector (basic
materials) are in bull-mode. This means the average price of
every stock in BHP's industry and sector is now trading above
the trend-line. This also means that more money is flowing in to
the industry and sector than flowing out. This could put
pressure on BHP's share price to move higher.
Action to Take--> Based
on the analysis above, I believe BHP is a good trade if traders
buy BHP with a
limit order at $72.40 and an initial stop loss at $68.94. A
target of $88 would bring a profit of just over +20%.
-- Mike Turner
Editor,
Mastering the Markets,
Trade of the Week
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