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Published: October 11, 2010
Working for StreetAuthority, I do a
lot of different things.
In the course of a day, I may be writing an article... editing a
newsletter... discussing potential picks with our staff...
researching the next investing hotspot... even going over
article ideas with
Bob Bogda, our managing editor.
And with so much going on, I actually find myself a little
frazzled as the day goes on.
To combat this, I've started getting to work about an hour
earlier than the rest of the staff. I don't do this to show off,
but found I can do more in that one hour (when I can simply
focus on one task without distraction) than I could in two hours
when the rest of the staff has the office buzzing.
Turning off the background noise allowed me to simplify things
-- and get better results.
What does this have to do with investing? A
ton.
Why diversification is like drinking from a fire hose
Sometimes the investing waters are as clear as mud to retail
investors. After all, there are literally thousands of potential
plays out there.
You could try to play a rebound in the automakers. You could
day-trade the banks. You could stick with index funds and ride
out any storm. You could even try to find companies that are
simply undervalued and will rebound once the market notices.
But the problem is that there are too many options -- it's like
trying to drink from a fire hose. Too many choices make it hard
to nail down the one investment that will make your portfolio a
winner.
Instead, like I do every morning by getting an early start, I
think successful investors need to turn off the distractions and
focus their attention on a small group of the best ideas...
drink from a glass, instead of a fire hose.
By shrinking your portfolio, you'll find:
- It's easier to stay on top of your investments -- If you
have a portfolio of 50 stocks, how well can you pay
attention to each one?
Even if you read up on each one just an
hour each week, you'd have a full-time job (plus 10 hours of
overtime) just to give each its due.
And with this market, it's more important than ever to watch
your holdings. Instead, a portfolio of just 10-12 of your best
picks would need significantly less time to track each week and
you'll likely sleep better at night knowing you've done your
homework.
(bullet) Better portfolio performance -- Which do you think
would average higher on a test: an entire class full of
students, or a handful of the smartest students as picked by the
teacher?
The answer is obvious... and it's the same with your portfolio.
Look through your holdings. If you have upwards of 30, 40, even
50 holdings or more, I bet you'll find some that you think are
simply "OK." It wouldn't even surprise me if you have some you
don't even like but simply haven't sold yet.
Instead, what if you culled down your portfolio to just your
favorite picks? Wouldn't your portfolio be in much better shape
going forward? You'd have the cream of the crop, instead of the
entire field. Remember, it's hard to outperform the market if
your portfolio is the market.
- That you're not alone in trimming down your portfolio --
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B)
holds just 37 positions. That's a lot for an individual
investor, but for a company with billions of dollars at its
disposal, it's surprisingly few. On top of that, in the past
25 years, Berkshire's top five holdings have made up an
average of 73% of its portfolio.
Buffett is simply a proponent for
positioning a portfolio to take advantage of the best picks.
He's even gone as far as saying:
"If it's your game,
diversification doesn't make sense. It's crazy to put money
into your 20th choice rather than your 1st choice. It's the 'LeBron
James' analogy. If you have LeBron James on your team, don't
take him out of the game just to make room for someone else."
If the world's greatest investor is following this approach,
shouldn't other investors?
That's what I'm doing with $100,000
Warren Buffett's school of thought is one of the main tenets of
my
Stock of the Month newsletter, and its $100,000
real-money portfolio. Think about it -- our economy and the
markets still continue to run hot and cold. Investors are still
skittish about unemployment, interest rates, housing... the list
goes on.
But no matter what's happening, there are always some stocks
doing well. And if you focus on a select group of your best
picks, you can profit.
Companies that cater to tougher economic times have done well.
Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST) is up +121% since 2008...
Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR) is up +182%. Auto-parts stores
(critical, as drivers are keeping cars longer) are the same
story: Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) is up +57%...
AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) is up +90%.
One of the best performers in my newsletter, Olin Corp.
(NYSE: OLN) gained +58% in about a year before I closed the
position. Sally Beauty Supply (NYSE: SBH) had the same
return. Liquor distributor Diageo (NYSE: DEO) gained
+34%. And these returns have been during what can at best be
described as a "rocky" environment.
[I'm very open with my closed
Stock of the Month positions.
You can view them all here.]
Action to Take --> I
understand that years of conditioning has led millions of
investors to think diversification is crucial to success. And it
is, if you want to simply match the market. But that's not what
I, nor Warren Buffett, want to do. I doubt you do either.
-- Amy Calistri
Editor
Stock of the Month
The Daily Paycheck
P.S. There's an analyst with a track record you need to
see. She has an 89% win rate -- remarkable for this market. And
she just keeps picking winners. One of her recent picks shot up
+18.2% in just 13 days.
Go here for the details... |