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Published: October 22, 2010
After a relatively
quiet period when the largest banks in the United States stayed
out of the press and were allowed to refocus on running their
operations, new allegations arose to suggest that many in the
industry were negligent in handling the process for foreclosing
on residential houses.
About as quickly as bureaucrats started pointing fingers at the
big banks, many of which also serve as the largest mortgage
processors in the country, the underlying management teams caved
to the politicians and announced immediate freezes on their
foreclosure processes, pending further investigation.
One bank, however, stuck to its guns by stating that "we should
keep in mind that a deposition does not suggest a wrongful
foreclosure" and said it was sticking to business as usual as it
planned to move forward in processing its foreclosures.
This may seem like a minor example, but there are many instances
in which Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) has stuck with its
principles and done what it thought was best for business, even
if it stood in stark contrast to what the rest of the industry
was doing.
An even clearer indication of this philosophy was when
management boldly and decisively snapped up Wachovia Bank on the
cheap at the height of the credit crisis. Wachovia was about to
succumb to an overwhelming amount of toxic assets on its
balance sheet and be snapped up by Citigroup (NYSE: C),
with the backing of the government -- in case losses came in way
higher than expected.
The Wells team, knowing an
opportunity when it arose, countered with a $15 billion bid that
was more than seven times what Citigroup was willing to offer.
The bid was also superior in that Wells said it would shoulder
all potential losses without the backing of Uncle Sam. The
aggressive maneuver worked, and Wachovia was folded into Wells
Fargo shortly thereafter.
Wachovia gave Wells Fargo a footprint on the eastern part of the
United States, and complements its western dominance quite well.
Wells now boasts more than 70 million customers, or one in three
Americans. In another unconventional manner compared to the
industry, it refers to its banks as stores, and now has more
than 6,000 in the country with which to cater to its customer
base and cross-sell a wide array of financial services, be it
traditional banking, asset management services or life
insurance.
Being bold when others are fearful has and will continue to
serve Wells Fargo well. It is also a primary reason that Warren
Buffett, who obviously embraces a similar philosophy, is the
bank's largest shareholder. A seal of approval from a man who
can certainly distinguish quality management teams from subpar
ones is also a noteworthy distinction.
Action to Take ---> The
latest round of mortgage accusations has sent shares of Wells
Fargo further into the bargain bin. I believe the shares could
be worth about +75% more than its current price within the next
few years.
This is based off a couple of assumptions. The first is that
loan loss reserves will prove excessive and boost earnings as
they are eventually reversed off the balance sheet.
Secondly, I peg normalized earnings at more than $3 per share,
which is based primarily on Wells returning to reporting a
mid-teens level of
return on equity (ROE). Applying a mid-teens earnings
multiple, which is right at about historical averages, leads to
a stock price close to $40 per share, or about +75% above where
the shares are trading currently.
A high-caliber management team that has the courage to do what
is right for shareholders is an added bonus and makes me
confident that Wells can easily ride out any future industry
headwinds. More importantly, it should continue outperform the
industry and has big upside as Wachovia is completely integrated
into the corporate culture.
-- Ryan Fuhrmann
Contributor
StreetAuthority
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