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Published: October 22, 2010
Although most of us
are too young to remember, imagine what it must have been like
during the Great Depression or the Second World War. Shortages
at those times had most everyone scrapping for basics like
sugar, butter or coffee.
Such things may seem unfathomable now because post-World War II
America has generally been a land of plenty. Some pretty tough
times may be afoot, though. In fact, for a lot of the world's
population, those times are already here.
Today, many people have a hard time getting hold of a commodity
no one can do without. The problem affects tens of millions in
Australia, Cuba, Pakistan, Mexico, Egypt and many other
countries. With the combined pressure of climate change and
population growth -- the global head count rises by 80 million
annually -- the shortage could even be a major issue in the
United States within a decade.
The
commodity in question: water. We all need it, but it's
increasingly likely to become dangerously scarce in the years
ahead.
A response from capitalism
As you might expect in a market economy, companies have noticed
the burgeoning water crisis and started developing solutions
such as improved infrastructure, more efficient purification and
better methods of making seawater drinkable through
desalinization. Besides being vital in addressing the crisis,
their efforts will create investment opportunities that are both
noble and lucrative. Water utilities and other firms that own
water rights may also deliver strong returns, depending on the
company.
Look for
mid-cap public water utility Aqua America (NYSE: WTR),
for example, to return an average of +10% to +15% annually
during the next few years on aggressive expansion of its
customer base (the company currently provides water and
wastewater utilities for several million residents of 13
states). Continued diversification into solar power is also
expected to make important contributions to the company's
bottom line.
American Water Works (NYSE: AWK), a mid-cap provider of
water and wastewater utilities to 15 million people in 32 states
and Canada, is also poised for market-beating returns like I've
projected for Aqua America. Forecasted earnings growth of +15%
annually will help drive those returns. But be aware the company
is highly leveraged and has a short trading history dating back
only to 2006. Its 3.7% dividend yield is somewhat better than
Aqua America's 3.0% yield, though.
Companies with answers
Whereas water utilities have water rights on their side,
innovators like small-cap purification firm Calgon Carbon
(NYSE: CCC) are likely to outperform because they develop
unique solutions. Calgon, for example, could return an average
of +11% to +20% annually because of its rapidly expanding
product capacity, which includes granular and activated carbon
for removing organic chemical compounds from water and other
liquids.
The company also has an
ultraviolet light system for disinfecting drinking water, and
counts the city of Boston as a major user of the system. Calgon
is expected to have plenty of success finding other big
customers for it in the U.S., Europe and Asia.
Other compelling water plays include Consolidated Water (Nasdaq:
CWCO) and Energy Recovery (Nasdaq: ERII). You've
probably never heard of them, but these small-caps are on course
to grow annual earnings by +15% and +20%, respectively, for the
next five years. Consolidated Water is becoming a leader in
desalinization, while Energy Recovery manufactures technologies
essential for desalinization. Both also have potential as
lucrative buyouts.
If the added riskiness of small-caps turns you off, consider
making General Electric (NYSE: GE) one of your water
plays. The company is heavily involved around the globe in every
facet of the water industry, including purification,
infrastructure, desalinization and recycling. Plus, at about $16
a share, it's trading -35% below Morningstar's
fair value estimate of $25 per share.
Action to Take --> From
an investing standpoint, you can prepare for the growing
worldwide water shortage by purchasing the stocks of companies
that are taking the lead in finding solutions. I've only
mentioned a few possibilities here. Your own research will
undoubtedly turn up plenty of other promising domestic and
foreign innovators from small-caps to large-caps.
For instant diversification, consider a water
exchange-traded fund (ETF) like PowerShares Global Water
(NYSE: PIO) or Guggenheim S&P Global Water (NYSE: CGW).
The performance of water ETFs generally hasn't been anything to
write home about, but they've only been around a few years. I
expect much better returns from them as water availability
issues become more serious.
-- Tim Begany
Contributor
StreetAuthority
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