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Can
October's Best-Performing Commodities
Continue Their Run?
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Published: November 3, 2010
There seems to be no end to the commodities
bull-run. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which tracks 19
heavily-traded commodities, posted a nice gain of +4.8% in
October. Keep in mind that came after a sizzling +8.5% pop in
September.
All in all, the gains were broad-based in October, with arabica
coffee up +11% and corn increasing by +17%. But the standouts
were sugar and corn, which both posted +20%-plus gains.
The main fundamental drivers remain intact. Because of adverse
weather conditions, there have been lower-yielding crops. At the
same time, the lackluster U.S. dollar has been a boost to
commodity prices, as they are denominated in dollars.
Investors are also eagerly awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve's
moves on quantitative easing (QE2), which will pump billions of
more dollars in the global economy. This could mean even more
pressure on the dollar.
But perhaps the most important fundamental driver is growing
demand. The fact is that China, India, Brazil and other
developing economies continue to consume huge amounts of
commodities.
So what should investors do? Despite the big moves, it looks
like there is still room to make profits. So let's take a look
at three of the best-performing commodities in October. I'll
also detail how investors can play these commodities directly
with exchange-traded funds (ETFs)...
1. Sugar: The key to this commodity is India, which is
the biggest importer and the second largest producer of sugar.
Because of the price moves, the country is considering
limitations on exports so as to rebuild inventories. The result
will inevitably be higher prices.
Because of adverse weather, India had a terrible sugar crop. In
fact, even Brazil -- the world's biggest producer of sugar --
had a production drop of about a third in the past year. At the
same time, demand may be increasing from China.
In light of these supply-demand dynamics -- which should
continue for some time -- it looks like prices should go higher.
A way to capitalize on this is with the iPath DJ-UBS Sugar
Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE: SGG), which tracks sugar
futures.
2. Cotton: In October, cotton reached the highest price
since the U.S. Civil War. Just like sugar, this commodity is
also experiencing supply disruptions because of bad weather.
There have been unusual storms in Texas as well as a cold spell
in China and a drought in Russia.
Because of supply concerns, there has been a rush to buy up
cotton. After all, the world's largest exporter, the United
States, has already sold much of its crop. The upshot should be
continued price increases.
To invest in cotton, you can look at the iPath Cotton (NYSE:
BAL) ETF.
3. Copper: This is a key commodity for industrialization
and growth, as evidenced by its main use: construction.
No doubt, China has been a driver for demand as it continues its
aggressive infrastructure efforts. As seen by the latest
economic reports, it looks like the growth story is still
strong. China's purchasing managers' index rose to a six-month
high in October.
But there are even signs that the U.S. is undergoing a
manufacturing rebound. True, it may not be in line with its
historical levels -- but even a small move can make a big
difference with copper demand.
On the supply side, copper is certainly tight. After the
2008-2009 global recession, there was a major drop in production
and it is going to take some time to get capacity back up.
As should be no surprise, you can invest in copper directly
through the iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Total Return ETN
(NYSE: JJC).
Action to Take --> As is the
case with any
bull
market, almost everything goes up -- and commodities are no
different. Looking out for the next six months, it's a good bet
that cotton, sugar and copper will continue their momentum,
possibly with double-digit moves in price increases. Thus, one
approach is to buy equal amounts of ETFs across these
commodities.
But which one will perform the best? My take is that it will be
copper. The reason is because a global recovery has not been
fully discounted into the markets yet. Also, there could be
supply disruptions, with one possibility being a strike in a
major copper exporting country such as Chile.
-- Tom Taulli
Contributor
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