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Published: November 5, 2010
As the Director of Income Research behind
High-Yield International, it's my duty to find the best
income investments all over the world. And what I'm finding is
that few places can compare to the yields and growth we're
seeing in South America right now.
One country I've been tracking has the fastest-growing economy
in the region. Experts peg its GDP growth this year at more than
+8%. JPMorgan just upped its growth estimate to nearly +10% --
that's twice the rate of better-known spots like Chile and
Brazil.
This "miracle" country is growing faster than its neighbors
because it doesn't rely on the United States for growth. The
economy is more reliant on exports of mainly food and fuel to
Latin American neighbors.
And while fast-growing economies often attract hordes of
investors, that's not the case here. In fact, the benchmark
stock index has returned +31% so far this year. Compare that to
Chile, where the economy grew half as fast, but stocks have
returned +37%. So while the economy is booming in this country,
there are still reasonable valuations.
The booming country I'm talking about is Argentina.
The rare combination of yields and growth
Not only is the nation growing at a tremendous clip, but I've
found yields approaching 9% as well.
So why aren't more investors flocking to Argentina? One reason
is its troubled history. At one time, it was one of the more
wealthy countries in the world. But that all changed in the
1990s. Argentina's economy faltered. In 2001, the country even
defaulted on $95 billion of debt. Unemployment soared to 25% and
the Argentine peso collapsed against the dollar.
The good news is all that is in the past. Argentina is in the
midst of an economic revival. The nation produced five straight
years of +9% GDP growth through 2007 and even managed to eke out
gains during the global recession.
I am keeping an eye on Argentina's
inflation; it's a natural byproduct of such rapid growth.
Inflation rose to an annual pace of +11.2% in July -- the
highest level in four years. This was the official rate the
government published, but some estimate the actual rate was
closer to +25%.
Argentina tolerates some inflation as a trade-off for higher
growth, so I'll keep watching it. But when you consider the risk
of just investing in the United States alone, that inflation
looks less scary.
Consider that Argentina enjoyed a budget surplus of 0.5% of GDP
late last year, while debt to GDP was only 49%. By comparison,
the U.S. has a
deficit of 9% of GDP and a debt to GDP of 83% in 2009.
Unemployment in Argentina of 7.9% in June is also considerably
less than our 9.6%. When put in those terms, the real risk seems
to be not expanding your horizons outside the United States.
It has taken a decade, but Argentina is finally regaining
credibility with investors. This June, the government repaid
nearly all of Argentina's outstanding debt that defaulted in
2001, including interest. Credit agency Fitch recently upgraded
the rating on Argentina's government bonds from "B-" to "B."
That's still speculative, but on the right track.
But we care about yields, so where do you find income plays in
developing countries like Argentina?
Action to Take --> I
usually start my search with the telecoms. Just like at home,
these can be dividend stalwarts in foreign countries. And with
economic development, many foreign telecoms are seeing rising
earnings thanks to broadband services.
I also like to study the banks. Banks are on the front line of
growing economies. Thriving businesses need loans to expand
their operations and more consumers begin borrowing to purchase
homes, cars and other big ticket items. In other words, the
banks can make money hand over fist -- and they're typically
generous in paying their earnings to investors as dividends. For
example, Argentine bank BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR)
trades in the U.S. and is paying close to 6% to stateside
investors.
One more thing... By my count, you can buy 18 Argentine stocks
as American Depository Receipts (known as ADRs) on the New York
Stock Exchange, including the aforementioned BBVA Banco Frances.
With that sort of convenience, it's a no-brainer to put more of
your portfolio in high-yielding foreign stocks.
[Note: We just put the finishing touches on a brand new free
course about investing abroad for high income called
Guide to the World's Highest Yields. To start reading --
and get the names and ticker symbols of some of the world's
highest-yielding stocks --
simply visit this link.]
-- Carla Pasternak
Editor
High-Yield Investing,
High-Yield International |